Good Tuesday morning from your Hometown Lender,

Yesterday saw a big recovery for bonds. The day started out with oil over $100 a barrel, after hitting a high of $119. Bonds started the day down almost -20bps, with rate sheets suffering. However, President Trump made comments yesterday that the conflict with Iran would be over “very soon” and that he thought “the war is very complete, pretty much.” Oil prices had one of the biggest swings on record, dropping back down to the low $90s. That opened the door for bonds to rally, ending the day in positive territory, up +4bps on the day while the 10yr yield fell to 4.12 from 4.17. For today, rates are better than yesterday morning (so far).

Oil prices are continuing to slowly creep lower today, which could help mortgage bonds recover from a bit of a weak opening. There is still a lot of risk of volatility though, especially if markets start to question the validity of the comments that things will be over soon.

Today the Pentagon said it is conducting the most intense day of air attacks against Iran and won’t give up until the Islamic Republic is defeated. Iranian officials have said that they are not seeking a ceasefire.

As you already know, volatility is high. Stay alert.

Market Analysis – From a higher and better view:

Market Analysis – Quick Snapshot

10-year Treasury: ~4.12% (down a hair vs. yesterday—mild tailwind for rate sheets if it holds).
Mortgage rates (MND daily, latest print): 30-yr fixed ~6.14% (as of 3/9).
Mortgage rates (Freddie Mac weekly): 30-yr fixed 6.00% (as of 3/5).
Consumer-facing averages (Bankrate via WSJ): 30-yr ~6.21% today.
Oil (the main character today): Brent ~$88.51, WTI ~$84.16 after dropping >10% on “possible de-escalation” headlines—after spiking near $119 yesterday.
Markets vibe: Relief rally risk-on overseas as oil cooled, but everyone’s still watching the Strait of Hormuz like it’s a season finale.
Next big catalyst: CPI tomorrow (Feb 2026) — Wed, Mar 11 @ 8:30am ET.

1) Market Analysis – What Hit This Morning (CPI)

No CPI release this morning—today was all about current events + positioning for tomorrow’s CPI.

A) Oil whiplash = inflation expectations whiplash

Oil fell >10% today on comments suggesting the Middle East war could de-escalate, easing “sustained supply disruption” fears.
But… the same reporting also notes ongoing threats around regional oil exports/Hormuz—so the market’s not calling it “resolved,” just “less awful than yesterday.”

B) CPI tomorrow: what the street is looking for (pre-war snapshot)

Many previews expect headline CPI ~2.4% YoY and core ~2.5% YoY for February.
MarketWatch notes forecasts around +0.3% MoM headline and ~+0.2% MoM core, with the big caveat: the oil shock won’t be fully in February CPI—it’s a “what we looked like before the fireworks” read.
Cleveland Fed nowcasting (updated 3/10) puts Feb CPI ~2.41% YoY and core ~2.46% YoY (useful as a directional check, not gospel).

Narrative you can use:
“Tomorrow’s CPI is likely a ‘pre-shock’ inflation snapshot. The bigger story for rates is whether the oil spike becomes a trend or a headline. Today’s drop helps—but the bond market is still jumpy enough to spill coffee on itself.”

2) Fed Watch

The Fed’s near-term problem is simple: energy shocks can keep inflation expectations sticky, even if underlying inflation is cooling.
Translation: a friendly CPI tomorrow helps the “cuts later” narrative, but if oil re-spikes, the Fed stays cautious (and mortgage pricing stays choppy).

3) Market Analysis – Where Mortgage Rates Actually Are

MND daily (latest): 6.14% on the top-tier 30-yr fixed as of 3/9.
Freddie Mac weekly: 6.00% as of 3/5.
Why rate sheets haven’t instantly improved: Mortgage News Daily explicitly flagged oil putting upward pressure on rates recently—today’s oil drop is helpful, but lenders usually want confirmation before they hand out discounts like it’s Costco samples.

4) Market Analysis – Housing Market Check

Not a ton of fresh housing releases today, so here’s the high-signal, current setup:

We’re still living with a structural housing shortage (Realtor.com has recently pegged the supply gap around ~4 million homes), which is why prices tend to cool more often than they crash.
(Today’s “housing impact” is mostly through rates + confidence, not a specific housing data print.)

5) Political Backdrop & Fed Independence

Middle East conflict → oil → inflation expectations → rates. That chain is the story.
Saudi Aramco publicly warned of “catastrophic consequences” for global markets if Hormuz stays effectively blocked—markets will keep pricing that tail risk until the situation truly cools.

6) Market Analysis – What This All Means for Rates Going Forward

Scenario	What happens next	Rate impact
1) Oil de-escalates + CPI behaves (best case)	Energy fades, CPI prints tame, volatility cools	10-yr drifts lower → mortgage pricing improves more consistently
2) Base case: “headline chop”	CPI okay, but oil/Hormuz headlines keep whipsawing	Rates stay range-bound; good windows appear briefly, then vanish
3) Oil re-spikes / disruption persists (negative)	Renewed supply fears push inflation expectations up	Yields resist falling; mortgage rates re-test higher lows

7) Practical Takeaways

For buyers: If oil stays calmer and CPI is reasonable, this week can produce better lock windows—but you can’t assume they last.
For sellers: Under-supply still supports values in most markets, but buyers are payment-sensitive—condition and pricing discipline win.
For agents: Today is a masterclass in “macro matters.” Your open house traffic is now partially controlled by a waterway half a world away.

8) Market Analysis – Lock vs Float

30–60+ days out: Float with rules (specific trigger points). A tame CPI can help, but the oil tape is still volatile.
Closing in 7–21 days: Lean lock. With CPI tomorrow and geopolitics still unresolved, markets can reprice fast.

Stay safe and make today great!