Good Monday morning from your Hometown Lender,

Friday saw the jobs data come in much weaker than expected, although the reaction at the time of the time was short-lived as bonds sold off again. The good news though was that after dropping to the worst prices of the day around 10am, mortgage bonds started a steady march to improve through the early afternoon before falling back a bit to end the day. When the dust settled mortgage bonds were down about -5bps on the day.

Rates today are moving a bit higher, as oil surges past $100 and hits the highest price since 2022 but the sky is not falling. Volatility continues to be likely for mortgage bonds as traders try to navigate their way through this mess. That means reprice risk is moderate, since bonds selling off is always a monster under the bed right now. But that also means we’ve seen days start out worse and recover.

Although rates have moved higher from the lows we saw at the end of February, they still remain surprisingly low. Cautiously float to start, but lock if bonds don’t improve or lose more ground.

Market Analysis – From a higher and better view:

Market Analysis – Quick Snapshot

10-year Treasury: ~4.16% (yields up despite “risk-off” because energy = inflation anxiety).
Oil (Brent): ~$119/bbl after a ~25% spike on the Iran war / Hormuz disruption fears.
Stocks: Major indexes down >1% as crude-driven inflation fears hit risk appetite.
Freddie Mac (weekly benchmark): 30-yr fixed 6.00%, 15-yr 5.43% (as of 3/5/2026).
“Street-level” daily pulse: Bankrate national average 30-yr ~6.15% today (still a low-6s world, but jumpy).
This week’s big calendar: CPI (Feb) Wed, Mar 11 @ 8:30am ET; Existing Home Sales (Feb) Tue, Mar 10 @ 10am ET; FOMC Mar 17–18.

1) Market Analysis – What Hit This Morning (CPI)

No CPI print this morning — but markets are trading “CPI-by-oil-spike” right now.

Oil shock: Brent surged to around $119.50, one of the biggest one-day moves in years, on supply disruption risk tied to the Iran conflict and shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Market reaction: Stocks slid while bond yields rose (unusual combo), because inflation fears outweighed classic “safe haven” bond buying.
Next actual CPI: Wednesday, March 11 (Feb CPI)—the next true “rates can move” data point.

Narrative you can use:
“Normally, scary headlines push investors into bonds and help rates. Today’s headline is different: an oil shock threatens inflation, so yields can rise even while stocks fall. Welcome to the ‘choose-your-own-adventure’ bond market.”

2) Fed Watch

Next FOMC: March 17–18 (SEP meeting).
The Fed’s problem this week: weak-ish growth signals can argue for cuts later… but energy-driven inflation risk makes the Fed reluctant to declare victory.
Base expectation in most coverage: hold in March, then let inflation + labor data decide the next move.

3) Market Analysis – Where Mortgage Rates Actually Are

Freddie Mac (PMMS): 6.00% average on 30Y fixed (3/5), 5.43% on 15Y.
Daily reality check: Bankrate’s national average has 30Y ~6.15% today (oil headlines can leak into rate sheets fast).
MBS tone today: Mortgage News Daily’s intraday tracker shows MBS down slightly—suggesting minimal-to-modest upward pressure on pricing.

4) Market Analysis – Housing Market Check

National supply story (still the villain):

Realtor.com estimates the housing supply gap widened to ~4.03 million homes—that’s the structural reason prices don’t “crash” easily.

Near-term market behavior (more balanced, not broken):

Active listings up ~7.9% YoY; time on market +4 days; median list price down ~2.0% YoY in February—buyers have a little more oxygen.
Home prices (slower, not sliding): Case-Shiller national index showed ~1.3% YoY gain in Dec 2025 (cooling).
FHFA: +1.8% YoY (Q4 2025) and +0.1% in December (monthly).

5) Political Backdrop & Fed Independence

Iran war → oil shock: This is the headline that matters because it hits inflation expectations and consumer sentiment quickly.
Supply disruption risk looks real: multiple Gulf producers have curtailed output / rerouted shipments; shipping through Hormuz is constrained.
Why housing people should care: energy spikes tend to slow consumer confidence, pressure affordability, and delay rate improvements—even if the underlying economy is cooling.

6) Market Analysis – What This All Means for Rates Going Forward (three-scenario grid)

Scenario	What happens next	Rate impact
1) Oil spike fades (best case)	De-escalation + shipping normalizes + CPI doesn’t accelerate	Bonds breathe → mortgage pricing improves gradually
2) Oil stays high (base case today)	Energy remains elevated long enough to lift inflation expectations into CPI/PCE	Rates stay choppy; lenders price defensively
3) Oil shock worsens (negative tail)	Further supply outages / escalation	Yields can rise even with weak growth → mortgage rates resist falling

7) Practical Takeaways

For buyers: More listings + slightly softer asking prices are real tailwinds… but energy headlines can steal affordability in a hurry.
For sellers: The structural shortage still supports values; you just don’t get to price like it’s 2021 and expect a line out the door.
For agents: This is a “micro-market” season—homes that are clean + correctly priced move; everything else becomes an extended social experiment.

8) Market Analysis – Lock vs Float

30–60+ day timelines: Float with rules (clear targets) because CPI on Mar 11 can open a better window if inflation cooperates.
Closing in 7–21 days: I lean lock. When oil is doing backflips, rate sheets can reprice for the worse with zero notice.

Stay safe and make today great!