Good Morning on this best day of the week, Wednesday from your Hometown Lender,
Today is Fed Day and not much else matters for markets.
Rate sheets this morning will be about the same as yesterday as we had into the Fed meeting, and reprice risk is high this afternoon. The Fed policy statement with dot plot is at 11am, with Powell’s press conference at 11:30.
Today’s the big day, with three things likely happening…
- The Fed will cut its policy rate by .25%
- The Fed will release its dot plot forecast for rates in 2025,2026, 2027 and beyond
- Fed Chair Jerome Powell will hold his regular post-meeting press conference
Markets (and mortgage rates) have already priced in today’s rate cut, so it’s a non-issue.
The dot plot could be bad for rates if it shows less projected rate cuts for 2025 than the market is anticipating, but could be good if it holds at September’s dot plot and projects the same number of cuts. Rates have trended higher over the last weeks on Fedspeak leaning towards fewer cuts in 2025. Powell’s press conference is the real market mover, and if markets believe that Powell’s answers and tone mean less cuts next year, it will be bad for rates.
Stay tuned and make today great.
