Good Monday morning, from your Hometown Lender,

This week is fairly busy with data.

Today’s economic news included the release of house prices and confidence data, both came in very strong although on the confidence numbers, the expectation component came in again at recession pointing numbers. Market seemed to have taken the data in stride and bonds were doing well for a bit but have since, sold off. I think this is more of a technical move as we continue to bounce between the highs and lows of the current trading channel. 

Tomorrow is a bit of a respite although we do have the Fed’s Beige Book on economic activity tomorrow afternoon. The it is on to GDP on Thursday (markets are expecting a very low reading of 1.3% in Q1 which to me, seem unreasonable). Come Friday, the hammer drops with the publication of the personal consumption expenditures price index — the Fed’s favorite inflation gauge. Economists expect that to show the smallest advance so far this year for the measure. We’ll have to wait to see if that reading comes in as expected, and potentially brings some relief to Fed policy makers.

Before then, the central bank itself has a busy week, with another slew of speakers due as well as the release of the Fed’s Beige Book. Neel Kashkari kicked off proceedings off with comments on CNBC earlier Tuesday, saying policymakers should take their time in monitoring whether inflation is slowing enough to warrant interest-rate cuts. The ECB is scheduled to meet next week, and expectations are high they will cut rates. If they do, that will also put some pressure on our Fed to move soon.

Stay safe and make today great!