Good Friday AM from your Hometown Lender. Let’s dive into Friday’s market analysis!

Yesterday saw bonds rebound strong after taking a beating on Wednesday, helped out by a few things… an overreaction by markets on Wednesday, end of month trading, and oil prices falling. Bonds improved a bit further through the day. Oil prices are back to well below the $120 mark, falling on a report that there continues to be communication about drafting a peace agreement with Iran through mediators in Pakistan. The ISM manufacturing report missed a bit to the downside as well. Rates are inching their way back down.

In the final market analysis, we will end up higher on the week than where we started but not by much. The weekends are always interesting as President Trump tends to use the time when markets are closed to make market moving announcements. It’s 50/50. Do we have a deal to open the Strait or a decision to bomb? I suspect we will get news of one or the other over the next few days.

Market Analysis – From a higher and better (and more abridged view than normal):

Market Analysis – Quick Snapshot

Manufacturing is still expanding, but costs just got loud again. ISM manufacturing held at 52.7 in April, new orders rose to 54.1, supplier deliveries slowed to 60.6, and the prices-paid gauge jumped to 84.6, the highest since April 2022.
The Fed held at 3.50% to 3.75% on April 29, but the tone is less “cuts later” and more “we’re not ruling anything out.” Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan said the next move could be a cut or a hike, and several officials are pushing to drop the statement’s easing lean because of the oil shock.
Mortgage rates ticked up a bit. Freddie Mac’s weekly survey shows the 30-year fixed at 6.30% and the 15-year fixed at 5.64%, up from 6.23% and 5.58% last week, though still below year-ago levels.
Markets are in a weirdly cheerful mood anyway. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq hit fresh highs, helped by strong Big Tech earnings, while the 10-year Treasury slipped to about 4.36% and Brent pulled back toward $108 after Thursday’s spike.
The political wildcard is still Iran/Hormuz. Iran sent a new proposal for negotiations through Pakistan, but disruption in the Strait of Hormuz is still the core inflation-and-rates problem.

1) Market Analysis – What Hit This Morning

Today’s main domestic read was manufacturing, and it came in with a very 2026 flavor: activity steady, orders okay, costs hot. That keeps the economy from looking weak, but it does not give the bond market much reason to throw a party.

2) Fed Watch

The Fed is still officially in hold mode, but the internal message got more hawkish after Wednesday. The key takeaway now is not “cuts are coming,” but “the next move depends on whether oil-driven inflation cools off or keeps getting worse.”

3) Market Analysis – Where Mortgage Rates Actually Are

The weekly Freddie Mac read is now 6.30% on the 30-year fixed and 5.64% on the 15-year. That is a small step backward from last week, which is a reminder that mortgage pricing is still getting pushed around more by oil, inflation expectations, and Treasury sentiment than by wishful thinking.

4) Market Analysis – Housing Market Check

Housing still looks alive, but rate-sensitive. AP reported the spring market remains sluggish overall even with some signs of better buyer engagement, and Freddie Mac noted rates are still below this time last year. Translation: buyers are still in the game, but nobody is confusing this with easy mode.

5) Market Analysis – Political Backdrop & Fed Independence

The macro story is still crude oil with a foreign-policy passport. Iran’s new negotiating proposal helps a little on sentiment, but Hormuz disruption is still the big inflation threat, and Fed officials are openly saying that may force them to abandon any bias toward cuts.

6) Market Analysis – What This All Means for Rates Going Forward

Base case: rates stay choppy to slightly elevated because manufacturing is holding up and inflation pressure from energy and supply chains is still very real. Better case: diplomacy gains traction and oil backs off. Worse case: oil stays high, inflation expectations rise, and the Fed starts sounding even more comfortable with a longer hold or even a hike.

7) Market Analysis – Practical Takeaways

For buyers, structure still beats hope. For agents, the message is that demand is there, but affordability still has trust issues. For refi conversations, this is still not a “rates are about to tumble” market.

8) Lock vs Float

0–15 days: lean lock.
15–30 days: case by case.
30+ days: cautious float, but only if the borrower can handle headline-driven swings. Oil is still the loudest voice in the room

Stay safe and make today great!