Good Thursday am from your Hometown Lender. Enjoy today’s market analysis!
Yesterday saw bonds move around a bit on the day and end the day around -11bps, giving back some of the previous day’s gains, but not enough of a shift to see rates move much.
For a third day it’s looking like rate sheets will be about the same, as bonds hold steady. Jobless claims this morning remained super low, not much (if any) effect on bonds though. Traders are curious to see what Fed Chair Kevin Warsh will have to say tomorrow in Jackson Hole.
Market Analysis – From a higher and better view:
Quick Snapshot of Market Analysis
- 10-year Treasury: approximately 4.66%
- 30-year fixed: 6.75% daily average
- Freddie Mac weekly average: 6.66%, up from 6.65%
- 15-year fixed: 6.32% daily average
- FHA: 6.33%
- Jumbo: 6.88%
- Stocks: Higher, led by technology
- Oil: Volatile near $88–$89
Rates vary by borrower, property, structure and points. Mortgage News Daily | Freddie Mac
Market Analysis – Why It’s Happening
Initial unemployment claims fell by 4,000 to 203,000, while continuing claims declined to 1.778 million. The labor market is cooling gradually, but layoffs remain low—good news for the economy, less helpful for hopes of immediate rate relief.
The July goods-trade deficit widened sharply to $118.8 billion as imports surged and exports declined. That could subtract roughly one percentage point from third-quarter economic growth. Economic-data recap
Markets & the Fed
Technology stocks are rallying after Nvidia projected continued extraordinary growth in AI-related demand. Wall Street loves artificial intelligence almost as much as the bond market dislikes persistent inflation.
The larger event arrives tomorrow when Fed Chair Kevin Warsh speaks at Jackson Hole. Markets want clarity on whether the Fed is prepared to raise rates if inflation remains stuck above its 2% target. Several Fed officials are already warning that inflation is still too high. Fed outlook
Market Analysis – Political & Global Backdrop
The U.S.–Canada trade dispute remains an inflation risk, although Canada removed American seafood from its retaliatory tariff list today. Meanwhile, uncertainty surrounding Iran and the Strait of Hormuz continues to keep oil prices—and therefore inflation expectations—volatile.
Market Analysis – What It Means
Mortgage rates remain stubbornly stable near recent highs. Buyers should focus on negotiating price, seller concessions and temporary buydowns instead of waiting for a dramatic rate decline that has yet to receive an invitation.
Lock vs. Float
- Closing within 15 days: Lock.
- Closing within 15–30 days: Maintain a locking bias.
- More than 30 days out: Carefully floating may be reasonable.
Tomorrow’s Jackson Hole speech creates headline risk. If Chair Warsh sounds more concerned about inflation, yields and mortgage rates could move higher quickly.
Stay safe and make today great!