Good Monday am from your Hometown lender. Here’s todays market analysis and weekly breakdown!

Friday saw the optimism for rates fade, with mortgage bonds slipping lower through the afternoon before leveling off after a hawkish speech from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh in Jackson Hole. Oil prices crept higher, with Brent crude falling just under the $90/barrel mark.

Today, rates creep higher as oil also creeps higher and the headlines work against us. Market speculation that the Fed will raise rates as soon as September has jumped, going from about 40% to up almost 65% this morning. Markets are even pricing in the probability that we could see two rate hikes by the end of the year. It is likely we could see oil continue to move higher, pressuring mortgage rates as tensions escalate in the Middle East. For the first time in a month, US and Iranian forces have attacked each other, heightening the risk of a return to all-out military action in the region.

Market Analysis – From a higher and better view:

Market Analysis – Quick Snapshot

• 10-year Treasury: approximately 4.75%, sharply higher
• 30-year fixed: latest daily average 6.81%, with upward pressure today
• 15-year fixed: approximately 6.35%
• FHA: approximately 6.37%
• Jumbo: approximately 6.90%
• Mortgage bonds: Weaker
• Stocks: Lower
• Oil: Brent above $90, up roughly 3%

Rates vary by borrower, property, loan structure and points. Mortgage News Daily

Market Analysis – Why It’s Happening

Two forces are pushing rates higher:

• Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole remarks increased the perceived likelihood of a September rate hike to roughly 60%.
• Renewed military action between the U.S. and Iran sent oil prices and inflation concerns higher.

The Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index also jumped to 11.6 from 1.3, signaling stronger regional factory activity. Good economic news is welcome—unless you are a bond hoping for a quiet Monday.

Political & Global Backdrop

U.S. forces struck Iranian launchers near the Strait of Hormuz after intelligence indicated preparations to deploy rockets and sea mines. Iran retaliated against U.S. positions, escalating concerns about energy supplies and regional stability.

Oil reached approximately $91 before easing slightly. Higher energy prices can feed directly into inflation expectations, Treasury yields and mortgage pricing. Reuters oil and conflict update

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is also seeking G20 support for additional financial sanctions against Iran while defending the stability of the U.S. Treasury market. Treasury-market update

Market Analysis – What Markets Are Watching

This is a major employment-data week:

• Tuesday: ISM Manufacturing and JOLTS
• Wednesday: ADP employment and the Fed’s Beige Book
• Thursday: Jobless claims and ISM Services
• Friday: August employment report

Friday’s jobs report could determine whether September’s Fed meeting brings another pause—or the rate increase Chair Warsh just placed firmly on the table. BLS release schedule

Market Analysis – What It Means

Today’s higher oil prices and Treasury yields create renewed upward pressure on mortgage rates. Buyers should focus on controlling the transaction through price negotiations, seller concessions and buydowns rather than trying to perfectly time an unpredictable market.

Lock vs. Float

• Closing within 15 days: Lock.
• Closing within 15–30 days: Strong locking bias.
• More than 30 days out: Float only with the ability to absorb volatility.

Market analysis: With geopolitical risk elevated and a full slate of employment data ahead, today is better suited to protecting a workable payment than chasing a hypothetical dip.

Stay safe and make today great!