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Market Analysis 3.6.26: Jobs Report

Good Friday AM from your Hometown Lender. We’ve got your market analysis

Yesterday bonds started the day off down about -15bps, meaning rates were worse. That’s also where they ended the day. The 10yr yield performed similarly.

Today’s big-ticket item was the jobs report. Always the biggest economic report of the month and always a market mover. Today’s report was dismal -92,000 new jobs created (yes, a MINUS) versus the 50k expected, and unemployment came in higher at 4.4% versus the 4.3% expected.

If the Iran conflict wasn’t happening, we would have likely seen mortgage bonds up and rates down .25%. However, in this world, we saw bonds rally momentarily into positive territory before falling back to the worst levels of the day. There’s been some improvement over the last hour so keep fingers crossed it continues.

I couldn’t help wondering yesterday whether President Trump arrested Maduro and for the most part, took over Venezuelan oil as a precursor to attacking Iran knowing the later would impact oil globally. He now effectively controls most of the oil supply in one way or another. That’s playing chess.

Market Analysis – From a higher and better view:

Market Analysis – Quick Snapshot

  • Today’s headline: February Jobs Report missed badly: -92,000 payrolls, unemployment 4.4%.
  • 10-year Treasury: ~4.16% (yields higher than you’d expect after a weak jobs print… because oil is stealing the show).
  • MBS (UMBS 30yr 5.0): ~99.69 (-0.12) (MBS not exactly throwing a party).
  • Freddie Mac weekly (3/5): 30-yr fixed 6.00%, 15-yr 5.43%.
  • Mortgage News Daily daily index (as of 3/5): 30-yr fixed ~6.13%.
  • Oil shock: Brent roughly $90 with one of the steepest weekly gains since 2020 as the Iran conflict disrupts Hormuz flows.

1) Market Analysis – What Hit This Morning (CPI)

No CPI today — the jobs report was the main event, and it came with plot twists:

  • Payrolls: -92,000 in February (vs prior month +126,000, revised).
  • Unemployment rate: 4.4% (about 7.6M unemployed).
  • Wages: Avg hourly earnings +0.4% MoM to $37.32, +3.8% YoY.
  • Participation: 62.0% (still historically subdued).
  • The “don’t freak out” footnote: Health care jobs were hit by strike activity, and prior months were revised lower.

Narrative you can use:
“Jobs were weaker than expected, which normally helps rates. But right now, the bond market is staring at an oil shock and thinking ‘inflation risk,’ so we’re getting that classic ‘bad news is… complicated’ tape.”

2) Market Analysis – Fed Watch

  • Next FOMC: March 17–18.
  • The Fed’s headache today: Weak jobs data boosts cut expectations, but the oil spike threatens inflation progress (the dreaded “stagflation” word starts creeping into commentary).
  • Fed Gov. Waller’s take: Oil hurts at the pump, but if it’s short-lived, it may not change the inflation picture much.
  • Upcoming inflation checkpoints:
    • CPI (Feb): March 11
    • PCE/Personal Income & Outlays: March 13

3) Market Analysis – Where Mortgage Rates Actually Are

  • Freddie Mac (3/5): 6.00% on the 30-yr fixed (15-yr 5.43%).
  • Street-level reality: Many lenders are still living around low-6s because MBS haven’t rallied cleanly with oil risk and geopolitical volatility in the background.

4) Market Analysis – Housing Market Check

  • Existing-home sales (Jan): 3.91M SAAR, inventory 1.22M, 3.7 months supply, median $396,800.
  • Pending sales (Jan): -0.8% MoM, index 70.9 (contracts are still feeling the affordability squeeze).
  • Listings/inventory trend: Realtor.com says inventory is still rising YoY, but the recovery is plateauing, and time on market +4 days with median list price -2.0% YoY in February.

My read: Nationally, this is still seller-leaning because supply is under “balanced,” but it’s less lopsided than 2024–2025.

5) Market Analysis – Political Backdrop & Fed Independence

Two current-event drivers matter for rates and housing right now:

  • War / energy shock: The Iran conflict has disrupted Hormuz shipping and pushed oil sharply higher — this is the fastest way to re-inflate inflation fears.
  • Trade policy whiplash: The Supreme Court recently struck down sweeping tariffs imposed under emergency authority; markets are still pricing what replaces them and what that does to inflation/growth.

(And yes: when politics starts writing the volatility script, bonds tend to ad-lib.)

6) What This All Means for Rates Going Forward (three-scenario grid)

ScenarioWhat has to happen nextRate impact
1) “Oil fades, data cools” (best case)Oil spike proves temporary + CPI/PCE cooperateBonds catch a bid → mortgages improve more consistently
2) “Stagflation scare” (base case right now)Jobs soften but oil stays high long enough to lift inflation expectationsRates stay choppy; lenders price defensively
3) “Oil shock sticks” (negative tail)Disruption persists, energy bleeds into broader inflationHigher yields → mortgage rates resist falling (and can pop higher fast)

7) Practical Takeaways

  • Buyers: Weak jobs data is rate-friendly, but oil/geopolitics is rate-unfriendly — expect volatility and shorter “good windows.”
  • Sellers: Inventory is improving but still not “normal,” so correctly priced homes should still move — especially as we approach spring.
  • Agents: This is a “strategy market” — pricing, concessions, and buydowns matter more than motivational quotes (but keep those too, for morale).

8) Market Analysis – Lock vs Float

  • 45+ days out: Float with rules (clear targets). CPI on March 11 and PCE on March 13 are real opportunities for volatility in either direction.
  • Closing inside 15–30 days: I lean lock. With oil headlines moving markets intraday, you don’t want a geopolitical surprise turning into a pricing surprise.

Stay safe, enjoy the weekend and make today great!