Good Thursday AM,
Lots of data out today mostly soft/weak other than unemployment claims. It didn’t matter. Bonds are traveling back to the bottom of the range (in price which is the top of the range for yield/rate). The data for the bean counters was:
- Pending Home Sales -4.4 vs est 0.8
- Initial Weekly Jobless Claims 406K vs est 425K
- Q1 GDP Rev 6.4 vs 6.5
- Durable Goods Orders -1.3 vs 0.7
- Ex Trans 1.0vs 0.8
Good insight here:
“Bonds are pulling back, right on schedule. Once again we hit the top of the range and have pulled back. This should not surprise you because this is the high probability move. In this case it is possible that we do not drift all the way to the bottom of the range. We have some key moving averages that could help support us on the way down. The dream outcome would be to hold near the top today and then tomorrow have the PCE numbers come in soft. If this happens, expect a massive move down. As good as that sounds, please do not count on it. Given all that we know about the TEMPORARY inflation numbers, PCE will come in hot and pressure bonds. For that reason, be extremely careful if you decide to gamble and float.”
And I thought it would be higher (pun, intentional) . 6.3% — The percentage of hospitality and restaurant industry workers who tested positive for marijuana last year, among those who were tested for drugs. As more states legalize the drug, increasing numbers of U.S. workers are testing positive, even as the overall share of positive drug tests plateaued last year.
Please remain safe and healthy, make today great.