Good morning on this best day of the week Wednesday, from your Hometown Lender. Let’s dive into today’s market analysis and get the latest!

Yesterday was a calm day until noon, when it wasn’t. Escalations in the Middle East intensified and bonds started selling. Iran attacked 3 tankers in the Strait of Hormuz yesterday, as they continue to proclaim sovereignty over the strait. The U.S. was none too happy with this behavior, and revoked the sanction waiver allowing Iran to sell their oil. Bonds lost quite a bit of ground by the end of the day.

With oil prices back to being a factor, rates this morning are worse than yesterday, yet still not as bad as some might expect based on the escalation in the Middle East. The U.S. resumed military attacks last night, and President Trump has said the ceasefire is over and has said there will be more attacks tonight.

Bonds seem to be taking this in stride though, only down a bit this morning. Still, this bears watching, and reprice risk on the day is moderate.

Market Analysis – From a higher and better view:

Market Analysis – Quick Snapshot

Bonds: The 10-year Treasury is near 4.43%–4.44% as markets wait for today’s Fed decision and Chair Kevin Warsh’s first press conference. Bonds are calm-ish — the financial market version of smiling while checking the emergency exits.

Mortgage Rates: Daily tracking shows the 30-year fixed around 6.53% and the 15-year fixed around 5.91%. Freddie Mac’s latest weekly survey showed the 30-year fixed at 6.52% and the 15-year fixed at 5.84%.

Fed Watch: The Fed is widely expected to hold the current 3.50%–3.75% target range today. The real market mover will be the statement, updated projections, and whether Warsh signals a more neutral or hawkish stance.

Economy: May retail sales rose 0.9%, stronger than expected, suggesting the consumer is still spending. Stronger spending supports growth, but it also gives the Fed less reason to cut.

Housing: Recent housing data remains weak. May housing starts fell sharply, and high mortgage rates, construction costs, and affordability continue to pressure builders and buyers.

Politics / Geopolitics: Lower oil after U.S.–Iran peace-framework headlines has helped calm inflation concerns, but the Fed is unlikely to declare victory while inflation is still above target.

Market Analysis – What It Means

Today is all about the Fed.

The market does not expect a rate change. It expects a message. If the Fed sounds patient and balanced, bonds may hold steady. If the Fed removes its easing bias or sounds more concerned about inflation, rates could stay choppy or move higher.

In plain English: no rate fireworks are expected, but the press conference can still move the market.

Market Analysis – Housing & Mortgage Strategy

This remains a structure-the-payment market.

The best conversations right now are about:

Seller credits, temporary buydowns, permanent buydowns, builder incentives, ARM options where appropriate, and a realistic refinance plan if rates improve later.

Buyers are still active, but they are doing math. Sellers and builders who help solve the monthly payment problem have the best chance of turning interest into contracts.

Lock vs. Float

Lock bias: If closing within 30 days, the borrower is payment-sensitive, or the file is tight, locking remains the cleaner recommendation.

Float bias: Floating only makes sense with time, flexibility, and a clear trigger. Today’s Fed decision can move bonds quickly.

Today’s guidance:


Bias toward locking short-term closings. For longer timelines, cautious floating may be reasonable only with a clear risk ceiling and a plan before the Fed statement and press conference.

Stay safe and make today great!