Good Friday morning from your Hometown Lender,

The Winter Olympics start today. Go Team USA!

Today’s market analysis – and now back to our regularly scheduled program, yesterday saw mortgage bonds improve through the day after a series of labor reports that showed a softer labor market than markets were anticipating. The first was the Challenger job cuts, which showed the highest surge in jobs cuts in a January since the Great Recession in 2009. That was followed up with jobless claims, which topped all estimates but have been blamed on the winter storm that rocked most of the nation. The third report, the JOLTS data, was delayed from earlier in the week. This report showed December data, not January data, so it’s a bit stale, but shoed that there is a reduced demand for workers.

The improvement in rates should continue today. That probably sounds more impressive than it is, but it’s still a win. Consumer sentiment data came in stronger than expected and put a cap on today’s improvement for the moment.

Next week is big on data and on volatility with the jobs report coming on Wednesday and CPI on Friday.

From a higher view:

Market Analysis – Quick Snapshot

10-year Treasury: ~4.21% this morning; still in a tight range, with small day-to-day volatility.
MBS tone: Agency MBS pricing is basically flat-to-slightly better intraday (small moves, not a breakout).
Fed funds rate: 3.50%–3.75%, unchanged at the January FOMC meeting.
Inflation backdrop (latest official CPI): December CPI +2.7% YoY; core CPI +2.6% YoY.
Mortgage rate ballpark: Freddie Mac weekly survey at 6.11% (30Y) and 5.50% (15Y); MND daily composite around 6.20% for 30Y conventional.
Main catalyst timing shifted: January jobs report moved to Wed, Feb 11, and January CPI to Fri, Feb 13 after the shutdown-related delay.

1) Market Analysis – What Hit This Yesterday

Because payrolls were delayed, today’s “read” came from labor proxies:

Initial claims: 231k (higher week over week), while continuing claims remained relatively contained.
JOLTS (Dec): job openings dropped to about 6.54M, a multi-year low.
Layoff announcements: January cuts rose sharply (Challenger), which adds caution but isn’t the same thing as realized payroll losses yet.

Narrative you can use:
“Labor is cooling in spots, but not snapping. Bonds see enough softness to stay supported, but not enough clarity yet to force a big rally.”

2) Fed Watch

Fed is currently on hold at 3.50%–3.75% and still balancing inflation progress vs. labor softening.
Market pricing for a near-term cut has risen from earlier lows, but conviction is still data-dependent with payrolls/CPI both shifted next week.

3) Market Analysis – Where Mortgage Rates Actually Are

In practical terms: lenders are still pricing in a low-6s world for clean 30Y conventional scenarios, with daily noise mostly tied to Treasury + MBS micro-moves.
No broad reprice wave today yet—this is still a “coupon clipping” market, not a trend market.

4) Market Analysis – Housing Market Check

Existing-home sales (Dec): ~4.24M SAAR, up month over month.
Pending sales (Dec): improved modestly month over month.
New-home sales (Dec): ~698k SAAR (still active but not runaway).
Mortgage apps: purchase and refinance activity both softened in the latest MBA read, matching the “still-sensitive-to-rate-levels” theme.

5) Political Backdrop & Fed Independence

President Trump’s nomination of Kevin Warsh as next Fed Chair (for when Powell’s chair term ends) is now part of the rates conversation. Markets will focus on how rules-based vs. pragmatic his eventual policy mix looks.
Translation for mortgage strategy: when policy credibility/independence is questioned, long-end yields can get jumpy even without a huge data surprise.

6) Market Analysis – What This All Means for Rates Going Forward

Scenario	What would trigger it	Mortgage-rate direction
Improve (Bull)	Next week’s payrolls cool materially + CPI cooperates	30Y offers improve modestly
Range-bound (Base)	Mixed payroll/CPI prints, no major policy shock	Rates stay in current band
Pop Higher (Bear)	Sticky inflation and/or policy-confidence stress	Quick worsening in rate sheets

(Working probability today: Base case still highest.)

7) Market Analysis – Practical Takeaways

Buyers: structure payment first (seller credits, temporary buydowns, ARM vs fixed comparisons by hold time).
Refi watchers: keep trigger pricing pre-set; don’t wait for headlines to decide.
Agents: position financing as a tactical edge, not just a pre-approval checkbox.