Good Thursday AM from your Hometown Lender,

Today’s market analysis – Markets are volatile today. Equities, metals, crypto, all taking a sizeable hit.

Bonds are finally getting some of the love they deserve. The 10-year yield is down to 4.22%, and we would need to close convincingly below 4.20 to break the trend we have been in. The afternoons have been kind to bonds recently, so fingers crossed we keep that trend going. If so, I think there is room for rates to improve .125% -.25%.

Today’s data was weak, with Job Cuts exploding higher, and unemployment claims much worse than expected as well. We know employment is cracking.

It was expected that the Jobs Report for January would be released tomorrow, but that has been postponed until next week. I have been reading arguments on both sides. It would make sense that warmer weather allowed for more construction. I am just not sure that those jobs outnumber the losses in other areas.

I would expect volatility next week and do not recommend floating into an important data set like the jobs report.

Market Analysis – from a higher view:

Market Analysis – Quick Snapshot (Thu, Feb 5, 2026)

10-year Treasury: ~4.22% (benchmark for mortgage pricing direction).
Fed funds rate: 3.50%–3.75% (held steady at Jan 28 FOMC).
Inflation (latest CPI = Dec 2025): Headline +2.7% YoY, Core +2.6% YoY; January CPI is due Feb 13.
Labor this morning: Initial claims rose to 231,000; continuing claims 1.844M. JOLTS openings fell to 6.542M (lowest since Sept 2020).
Mortgage rates (national ballpark): Freddie Mac weekly 30-year fixed 6.10% (as of 1/29), 15-year 5.49%; daily market trackers are hovering near low-6s.

1) Market Analysis – What Hit This Morning (CPI)

No new CPI print today. Latest official CPI is still December: headline 2.7% YoY, core 2.6% YoY.
January CPI release timing: moved to Friday, Feb 13 after the temporary federal shutdown disruption.

Narrative you can use:
“Inflation is cooling versus the 2022 peak, but not fully tamed yet. We’re in the ‘progress, not victory lap’ phase.”

2) Fed Watch

The Fed held at 3.50%–3.75% and reiterated a data-dependent posture.
Fed Governor Cook struck a cautious/hawkish tone: inflation risks still tilted up, with policy uncertainty (including tariffs) still in the mix.
Market pricing still leans toward additional cuts later in 2026, but conviction is softer than it was a month ago.

3) Market Analysis – Where Mortgage Rates Actually Are

Freddie Mac PMMS (weekly, official): 30Y fixed 6.10%, 15Y 5.49% (latest posted week).
Daily lock-desk reality: still roughly low-6s for strong borrowers, moving with 10Y and MBS intraday.

4) Housing Market Check

Existing-home sales showed a December pop (+5.1% MoM), but affordability and inventory frictions remain.
Purchase demand improved in the latest MBA read (+11% w/w purchases), suggesting buyers respond quickly when rate volatility cools.

5) Market Analysis – Political Backdrop & Fed Independence

Ongoing headlines around Fed leadership/independence and White House pressure are back in the market conversation.
Trade/tariff uncertainty is still an inflation wildcard for 2026, which keeps the Fed cautious.

6) Market Analysis – What This All Means for Rates Going Forward

Scenario	Macro Setup	10Y Treasury	30Y Mortgage (national avg zone)
Base case (most likely)	Slowing-but-stable growth, sticky services inflation	~4.1%–4.4%	~5.9%–6.4%
Better-rate case	Cooler labor + softer inflation trend	~3.8%–4.1%	~5.6%–5.9%
Worse-rate case	Re-acceleration in inflation / tariff pass-through	~4.5%+	~6.5%–6.9%

(That grid is my working model from today’s data backdrop.)

7) Practical Takeaways

For buyers: waiting for “perfect” rates can cost more than a smart structure now (seller credits, temp buydown, refi plan).
For agents: rate volatility creates hesitation; payment strategy closes that gap faster than rate-chasing.
For pre-approvals: run two payment scenarios today (current note rate vs. improved refi case).