Good Tuesday AM from your Hometown Lender,
There is no economic data today, but the world does look different as Mr Trump took office.
In his speech, he took exception to the prior administrations policies and then went on to sign 46 Executive Orders. One of the most notable orders was to declare a national energy emergency. Oil drilling back on the forefront of everyone’s mind and additional oil supply will push prices down and will be disinflationary. I think that is a big piece of the puzzle and certainly outweighs the threat of deportations limiting employment. That Mr. Trump did not impose tariffs on day one is also a positive sign for markets. Equities are up, bonds are up and the 10yr note is down to 4.57% with mortgage bonds +20bps. We will soon test 4.50% on the 10yr and then see where we go but this is at least very positive for markets on day 2.
If you, as I am, are curious how the economy and markets have changed over recent administrations, the WSJ shared a little insight.. Mr. Trump is coming into his second term with some headwinds for sure, but he has beaten all odds in the past.

Mister, we could not use a man like Herbert Hoover again.
Presidents wield incredible power, but one thing beyond their control is the stock-market hand they are dealt. When trading begins Tuesday, President Trump will have made history by inheriting one even hotter than Hoover did just months before Black Tuesday.
A historic crash or shantytowns being named for The Donald are unlikely. Even so, the best predictor of stock-market returns over the medium term is how expensive they are today, so Trump’s prospects aren’t great.
Of all the measures of the market’s priciness, among the most reliable is the cyclically adjusted price/earnings ratio developed by Yale University economist Robert Shiller, since it looks back a decade and adjusts for inflation.
On that basis, American stocks are 83% more expensive than when Bill Clinton first took the oath of office, 145% more than when Barack Obama first did and a whopping four times Ronald Reagan’s starting point. They even are a third pricier than at the start of Trump’s own first term.
Stay safe and make today great!