Good morning on this best day of the week Wednesday, from your Hometown Lender,

A very happy New year to you if you are celebrating.

Rates have not moved much and with almost no data until Friday (well I guess GDP and unemployment claims tomorrow are some data to watch), we are likely in this same range for a bit longer. The outlook overall remains that there’s no clear path to lower rates from here.

Fed members out in force this week, with differing opinions about what the Fed should do with its policy rate in the upcoming meetings. Newly appointed member Stephen Miran, for example, said policy remains too tight and made the case for 125 basis points in rate cuts at the two remaining FOMC meetings in 2025, while Atlanta President Raphael Bostic said on Tuesday that the Fed needs to stay on guard against inflation. Fed Chair Jerome Powell, said in a Tuesday speech that the outlooks for the labor market and inflation both face risks and offered no hints on whether he might support a rate cut at the Fed’s next meeting in October.

Here is some higher level insight:

🏦 Mortgage Market & Rate Analysis

Tuesday, September 24, 2025

📊 Where Rates Stand Today

30-Year Fixed: ~6.22%–6.35%
15-Year Fixed: ~5.38%–5.52%
10-Year Treasury Yield: ~4.10%

Trend: Rates remain near their lowest levels in nearly a year, holding steady after last week’s Fed rate cut and mixed economic signals.

📰 Today’s Economic Data – 9/24

New Home Sales (August): Scheduled for release today.
Why it matters: This report tracks the pace of new home purchases and is a key indicator of housing demand.
Market impact: A slowdown in sales could reinforce the case for further Fed easing and support lower rates. A surprise jump could signal resilience and push rates slightly higher.

🗓 Weekly Recap & Market Drivers

Fed Rate Cut (9/17): The Federal Reserve lowered its benchmark rate by 25 basis points to 4.00%–4.25%. This was the first cut since December 2024 and reflects growing concern over a softening labor market.
Retail Sales (9/16): Flat for August, signaling cautious consumer spending — a rate-friendly sign.
Housing Starts & Jobless Claims (9/18): Housing starts slowed slightly, and jobless claims rose to 263,000 — the highest since 2021. Both point to a cooling economy.
Leading Economic Indicators (9/20): The index declined for the third straight month, reinforcing recession concerns and supporting lower bond yields.

🏛 Political & Policy Developments

Fed Messaging: Chair Powell emphasized that future cuts will depend on incoming data. The Fed’s “dot plot” shows a slim majority of officials expecting two more cuts by year-end.
Commercial Real Estate Outlook: Analysts expect the Fed’s rate cut to benefit commercial property markets more quickly than residential, especially for office and multifamily financing.
Global Trade & Tariffs: Ongoing negotiations and tariff threats continue to influence inflation expectations and investor sentiment.
Legislative Watch: Housing finance reform discussions are gaining traction, with policymakers reviewing FHLBank structures and liquidity access.

🔮 Rate Outlook & What to Watch

Short Term (This Week): If new home sales disappoint and durable goods orders (due Wednesday) show weakness, rates could dip further. If data surprises to the upside, expect rates to stabilize or tick up slightly.
Medium Term (Fall 2025): If the Fed follows through with additional cuts and economic data stays soft, well-qualified borrowers could see rates in the high-5% range by year-end. Risks include sticky inflation, weak Treasury auction demand, or geopolitical shocks.

📅 Key Economic Calendar – Sept 24–27, 2025

Tue 9/24: New Home Sales (August) → Medium impact
Wed 9/25: Durable Goods Orders → Medium impact
Thu 9/26: GDP Final Estimate (Q2) → High impact
Fri 9/27: Personal Income & Spending, PCE Index → Very High impact

💡 How to Explain This to Clients

“Mortgage rates are holding near their lowest levels in almost a year, thanks to the Fed’s rate cut and signs of a cooling economy. But because markets often move before the Fed — and sometimes bounce afterward — this could be a short-lived window. If you’re considering a refinance or purchase, now’s a great time to explore your options while rates are still favorable.”

Stay safe and make today great!