Good Thursday AM,
Monster GDP number this am.
Economy grew by 4.9% in Q3.. huh? Durable goods orders in at a monster 4.2%… huh? Both likely due to seasonal summer spending. Unemployment claims in at 210k up a bit from last week. When I saw those number print at zero dark thirty, I expected markets to be on sale… markets though seem to have gotten it right that while those numbers are huge and unexpected, they are also not sustainable with the higher rates we are feeling across the board. Credit cards at 20%, auto loans at 10%, mortgages at 8%… delinquencies are already starting to mount. The Fed is not going to raise rates next week and I don’t believe they will in December. Bonds are on the upside today (price so lower rates) despite most other assets classes losing a bit. We don’t have a trend yet and, after yesterday’s pull back, I am certainly concerned but it is worth seeing how the rest of the day trades out.. Tomorrow is PCE day so I would expect some volatility from that data set.
Interesting insight from the WSJ.
With mortgage rates approaching 8%, builders are also luring buyers with smaller homes, incentives, and other ways to lower purchase prices. The median sales price on a new home nationally was $418,800 in September, down 12.3% from a year earlier. That was the steepest annual price drop since 2009.
Not much else to share.
Please remain safe and healthy, make today great!