Good Tuesday AM, from your Hometown Lender,

A quick recap of the markets has bonds doing well with the 10-yr note down to 4.31% and mortgage bonds also improving. Stocks and Crypto are flat to a bit off.

Rate sheets today should are better than yesterday morning.

Reprice risk on the day remains high despite markets showing much more calm to start this week than we saw last week. We could continue to see improvements in bonds on the day, so want to continue to cautiously float, but recognize that any new announcements or social posts from President Trump about tariffs could send bonds selling off. Although last week was a brutal week for rate sheets, rates were still better than what we saw in January and early February. Unless we get another huge sell off due to tariffs, we could (should?) see rates slowly improve. Concerns over economic repercussions from the tariffs could help open the door for rates to improve over the coming weeks, if we see signs of economic or labor market weakness. No important data to speak of today. The calendar does get a bit more interesting tomorrow with Retail sales numbers, the Bank of Canada rate decisions, Fed Chairman Powell’s speech, etc..

Speaking on the fallout from tariffs, the US economy is set to lose billions of dollars this year from a pullback in foreign tourism and boycotts of American products, adding to a growing list of headwinds keeping recession risk elevated.

Another source of jitters: 

Some Canadian executives are advising staff against traveling to the US, and to take burner phones—typically a device with little to no personal data on it—if they do decide to go.

Arrivals of non-citizens to the US by plane dropped almost 10% in March from a year earlier, according to the International Trade Administration.

Goldman Sachs estimates the hit from reduced travel and boycotts this year may total 0.3% of gross domestic product, or almost $90 billion, in a worst case scenario.

Among those rethinking their vacation plans are Canadians, wary of visiting their neighbors to the south after Donald Trump imposed punitive tariffs on the country and suggested it should become the 51st US state.

Hostility at the border is adding to the stress about US travel, with reports of harsh and lengthy detentions of foreign nationals.

Stay safe and make today great!