Good Monday morning from your Hometown Lender,

Friday was a tame day, ending a week that saw rates move back to levels from before the GSE MBS buying announcement. A lot of jargon to basically say that rates fell when President Trump posted on social that he was going to have Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac buy up $200 billion of mortgage bonds to drive the demand up, which would drive the mortgage bond prices up and lower rates.

Rates dropped about a quarter point on the news, as markets priced in the additional expected demand. However, when Trump announced that he intended to find a way to take control of Greenland last weekend it shook up markets, and along with a crash in Japan’s bond market it pushed mortgage rates back up to previous levels.

Rates are slightly better today. I wouldn’t expect too much movement in any direction until Wednesday, as markets settle down ahead of this week’s Fed meeting.

From a higher view:

Quick Snapshot — Mon, Jan 26, 2026

10-year Treasury: ~4.22% (slightly lower vs prior session).
MBS (UMBS 30yr): 5.5 = 101-11, 5.0 = 99-31, 4.5 = 97-31 (latest posted).
Fed funds: 3.50%–3.75% target range; next FOMC Jan 27–28.
Mortgage rates (national ballpark):
MND daily index (last update Fri 1/23): 30-yr fixed 6.19% (flat) | 15-yr 5.76% (flat)
Freddie Mac PMMS (weekly avg, 1/22): 30-yr 6.09% | 15-yr 5.44%
Today’s headline risk: economic data backlog + pre-Fed positioning + politics (translation: bonds are moody teenagers).

1) What Hit This Morning

Durable Goods (Nov, released today due to the shutdown delay): stronger-than-expected signal for business investment.

Durable goods orders: +5.3% (headline surge—aircraft was a big driver).
Core cap goods orders (non-defense ex-aircraft): +0.7% (a cleaner read on business equipment demand).

Why bonds care: firmer growth + resilient investment can keep yields elevated and makes it harder for mortgage rates to glide meaningfully lower without friendlier inflation data.

Narrative you can use:

“Today’s data says the economy still has legs—especially business investment—so the Fed doesn’t need to rush. That usually means mortgage rates stay choppy in a range, not a straight line down.”

2) Fed Watch

This week’s meeting (Jan 27–28): the widely expected outcome is no change (hold at 3.50%–3.75%).
The bigger market question isn’t “what happens this week,” it’s how confident the Fed sounds about inflation cooling without growth re-accelerating—and whether political pressure becomes market-moving noise.

3) Where Mortgage Rates Actually Are

Two realities can both be true:

“Headline” weekly average (Freddie): 6.09% 30-year / 5.44% 15-year.
“What lenders were quoting late last week” (MND daily index, last update 1/23): 6.19% 30-year / 5.76% 15-year.

Translation: we’re still in a low-6s world, and the day-to-day feel is driven by MBS pricing (today’s coupon stack is basically unchanged at last posted levels).

4) Housing Market Check

Closings improved, but the forward pipeline blinked.

Existing-home sales (Dec): 4.35M SAAR (+5.1% MoM); inventory 1.18M (about 3.3 months); median price $405,400.
Pending home sales (Dec): -9.3% MoM (a sharp drop, five-month low per Reuters).

Agent takeaway: buyers show up when payments feel tolerable… and they vanish the moment rates/backdrop get weird.

5) Political Backdrop & Fed Independence

Reuters is flagging that this week’s Fed meeting may be overshadowed by concerns around political pressure and perceived Fed independence, which markets generally treat as volatility fuel.

Separately, tariff headlines and geopolitical chatter are keeping “risk-on/risk-off” swings alive (which can tug yields around even when the data is strong).

6) What This All Means for Rates Going Forward

Base case (most likely): Range-bound, grindy.

10-year hangs roughly ~4.10–4.35, mortgages stay ~6.0–6.3.

Better-for-rates case: A window opens.

Needs: inflation keeps easing + growth cools. Mortgage rates can briefly test below 6% (especially with clean CPI/PCE prints).

Worse-for-rates case: Hot growth wins.

If business investment + demand stay firm (like today’s cap goods), yields can lean higher and mortgages drift back toward mid-6s.

7) Practical Takeaways

For buyers: don’t wait for the “perfect rate”—win with structure (seller credits, temporary buydowns, smart loan options) and negotiate hard on price/terms while others hesitate.
For sellers: the pending-sales drop is a reminder: pricing and presentation still matter more than hope.
For agents: today’s market rewards pros who can explain the payment story quickly and calmly. Certainty sells.