Good Friday morning from your Hometown Lender,
Global tensions surrounding the U.S. takeover of Greenland have continued to ease, and bonds have recovered some of the early week losses, as have rate sheets. Rates today should be better than yesterday, although still not near the best levels seen after the GSE bond buying social post. Today should be a calm day, reprice risk finally low to end the week.
Quick Snapshot — Fri, Jan 23, 2026
- 10-year Treasury: ~4.25% this morning (recently ~4.26% on the last posted FRED print).
- MBS (UMBS 30yr 5.5): 101-09 (Thu 1/22 close), basically flat on the day; early trading is mostly sideways.
- Fed funds: 3.50%–3.75% target range.
- Mortgage rates (national ballpark):
- MND daily index (last update 1/22): 30-yr fixed 6.19% (-0.01) | 15-yr 5.76% (flat)
- Freddie Mac PMMS (week of 1/22): 30-yr 6.09% | 15-yr 5.44%
- Today’s main catalysts: S&P Global Flash PMI + U. Michigan Consumer Sentiment (final).
1) What Hit This Morning (PMI + Sentiment, with “Narrative you can use”)
S&P Global Flash PMI (Jan)
- Composite PMI: 52.8 (modest expansion)
- Reuters notes price pressures remain elevated, with tariff-related cost increases still showing up in the data.
University of Michigan Sentiment (Jan, final)
- Sentiment: 56.4 (up from 52.9 in Dec)
- Inflation expectations: 1-year 4.0% (lowest since Jan 2025); long-run 3.3%
Narrative you can use (client-friendly):
“Today’s data is a mixed bag: growth is still positive, but inflation ‘stickiness’ is lingering—especially in costs tied to trade/tariffs. The good news is consumers are a bit less panicked about inflation near-term. Net-net: rates aren’t getting an all-clear signal yet, but they’re also not hearing ‘uh-oh’ sirens.”
2) Market Analysis – Fed Watch
- Near-term setup: Markets still look set up for a pause at the next meeting (no fireworks expected unless inflation re-accelerates or jobs crack).
- What matters most from here: whether inflation pressure in services/costs cools without the labor market breaking—classic “soft landing” tightrope walk.
3) Market Analysis – Where Mortgage Rates Actually Are
- 30-yr fixed: ~6.19% (MND daily index); ~6.09% (Freddie weekly average)
- What it means in the real world: you’re still seeing low-6s for well-qualified borrowers, but pricing can swing by lender and structure (points/credits, buydowns, ARMs).
- Today’s pricing risk: MBS is sideways early, so reprices are more “headline-driven” than “data-driven.”
4) Housing Market Check
- Freddie’s message remains: rates are still near the lowest levels in ~3 years, even with the recent uptick.
- AP notes the market is still constrained by high prices + low supply, and that many owners are sitting on sub-5% mortgages, limiting inventory turnover.
- Translation: even when rates improve, inventory is the choke point, not just payment.
5) Market Analysis – Political Backdrop & Fed Independence
Two things are colliding in the background:
- Tariff/trade policy uncertainty is explicitly showing up in cost pressure commentary tied to today’s PMI read.
- Reuters also reported the administration directing large-scale mortgage-backed bond purchases to try to reduce housing costs—economists argue it’s not moving the needle much because the bigger issue is supply, not financing.
The bond market’s translation layer is simple: policy uncertainty = volatility, and volatility tends to keep mortgage pricing cautious.
6) What This All Means for Rates Going Forward (three-scenario grid)
7) Practical Takeaways of Market Analysis
- Buyers: Don’t wait for a perfect headline—build a payment plan (credits + temp buydown + structure).
- Sellers: In a low-6s world, the cleanest way to attract buyers is often concessions that lower payment, not just price cuts.
- Agents: Your best script today is: “Rates are stable-ish, but volatile—let’s win on terms.”
8) Lock vs Float (today)
- 0–15 days to close: lean lock (sideways MBS doesn’t pay you for bravery).
- 15–45 days: float only with clear targets (e.g., “if we see a meaningful bond rally / pricing improves, we lock same day”).
- 45+ days: float can make sense if you’re flexible and ready to act during brief “rate windows.”
Stay safe and make today great!