Good Tuesday am from your Hometown Lender. Let’s see what today’s market analysis has in store for us!
Although bonds are a bit better than this AM, there’s no cause to celebrate. Rates are back to pushing up near the worst levels of the year. Markets continue to bet on a Fed rate hike in a couple weeks, and tensions are escalating once again in the Middle East.
JOLTS data today was weaker than expected ISM manufacturing came in a bit stronger. Headlines say Treasury yields are hitting the highest levels in almost 20 years, the 10yr last visiting these levels back in 2023. Reprice risk on the day is moderate, although bonds have improved quite a bit since the open. It is tough to lock but also tough to float.
Market Analysis – From a higher and better view:
Quick Snapshot — Market Analysis
- 10-year Treasury: Around 4.78%, higher this morning. Treasury yield
- Mortgage benchmarks: 30-year fixed 6.87%; 15-year 6.38%; FHA 6.40%; jumbo 6.92%. These are MND’s latest published averages, dated August 31, not today’s individual loan quotes. Mortgage News Daily
- Stocks: Lower as rising borrowing costs weigh on investors. Market update
September has arrived. Unfortunately, inflation remembered to bring its luggage.
Market Analysis – Why It’s Happening
Factories are expanding, but costs remain stubborn. August’s ISM Manufacturing Index slipped to 54.6 from 55.6—still above the 50 expansion threshold. The prices-paid index remained elevated at 71.1, showing that manufacturers continue facing broad cost increases. ISM report
Hiring remains cautious. July job openings edged up to 7.27 million, while hiring declined to approximately 5.05 million. My read: a resilient labor market, but hardly a hiring boom. JOLTS report
Political & Global Backdrop
Renewed U.S.–Iran fighting and disrupted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz pushed Brent oil toward $92 a barrel. Higher energy costs add another obstacle to lower inflation. Energy update
Following Chair Warsh’s Jackson Hole remarks, markets are pricing roughly a two-thirds chance of a September Fed rate increase. That is a market estimate—not an announced decision. Fed expectations
What The Market Analysis Means
My takeaway: softer hiring offers some potential rate relief, but energy costs and persistent inflation are working against it. Buyers should compare price reductions, closing-cost credits and buydowns—and choose a payment they can comfortably carry without relying on a future refinance.
The next major checkpoint is Friday, September 4, at 8:30 a.m. Eastern, when August’s employment report arrives. BLS calendar
Lock vs. Float
- Within 15 days: Favor locking.
- 15–30 days: Maintain a locking bias, especially with a tight payment budget.
- Beyond 30 days: Floating can be reasonable with room for volatility and a clear trigger to lock.
Protecting an affordable payment beats needing the next headline to cooperate.
National mortgage benchmarks are not Noble loan offers; actual pricing depends on qualifications, loan structure, fees and points.
Stay safe and make today great!