Good Thursday morning from your Hometown Lender. Here is today’s market analysis!

Yesterday bonds drifted a bit worse through the late afternoon but didn’t lose enough ground to trigger reprices worse. Bonds continued to lose ground in overnight trading and up until the BLS jobs data was released. The jobs data came in softer than expected, with only 57,000 new jobs created versus the 115,000 that were forecast. Unemployment was down a bit to 4.2%, which was lower than the 4.3% that was expected. This would normally be bad for bonds (and rate sheets) because it shows labor strength, but the participation rate was lower (the number of people who are looking for a job, thereby participating in the job market) so markets shrugged it off.

Bonds had a strong relief rally, improving about +30bps immediately after the data was released. A relief rally is when markets were prepared for the worst (in this case a stronger labor market) and are relieved that it didn’t come out that bad, unwinding some of the trades that they had set up. However, after the dust settled, bonds were basically up 5-8bps and that just brings us back to where they were when pricing came out yesterday.

So, rate sheets today likely unchanged or close to what we saw yesterday and reprice risk on the day is low. The bond market closes early today and will be closed tomorrow for Independence Day observation. Traders have all left the building by now and are on their way to the Hamptons. I would not expect much from the market until Monday. If you floated, you dodged a bullet but didn’t see much benefit.

Market Analysis – From a higher and better view:

Market Analysis –Quick Snapshot

Bonds: The 10-year Treasury is around the mid-4.4% range after a softer-than-expected June jobs report took some pressure off Fed rate-hike fears. Bonds got a little relief — not a vacation, but at least they found the armrest.
Mortgage Rates: Daily tracking shows the 30-year fixed around 6.51% and the 15-year fixed around 5.90%. Freddie Mac’s latest available weekly survey showed the 30-year fixed at 6.49% and the 15-year fixed at 5.84%.
Jobs: The economy added just 57,000 jobs in June, below expectations, while the unemployment rate dipped to 4.2%. The headline looks soft, but the lower unemployment rate keeps the report mixed.
Wages: Average hourly earnings rose 0.3% in June and 3.5% year over year. Wage growth is steady, but not hot enough by itself to scream “Fed hike tomorrow.”
Oil / Geopolitics: Oil fell to roughly four-month lows as U.S.–Iran talks showed progress and Hormuz supply concerns eased. Lower oil helps the inflation story, but geopolitical risk has not exactly retired to Boca.
Fed Watch: Today’s jobs report likely reduces near-term hike pressure, but inflation remains above target. The Fed still has room to stay patient — and still plenty of reason to stay cautious.

Market Analysis –What It Means

Today’s tone is slightly better for bonds and mortgage pricing. Softer hiring and lower oil both help reduce inflation and rate-hike pressure. But mortgage rates remain in the mid-6s, and the Fed is not ready to declare victory.

In plain English: the market got some relief, but affordability still needs a game plan.

Market Analysis –Housing & Mortgage Strategy

This remains a structure-the-payment market.

The best conversations right now are about:

Seller credits, temporary buydowns, permanent buydowns, builder incentives, ARM options where appropriate, and a realistic refinance plan if rates improve later.

Buyers are still active, but they are doing math. Sellers and builders who help solve the monthly payment problem have the best chance of turning interest into contracts.

Lock vs. Float

Lock bias: If closing within 30 days, the borrower is payment-sensitive, or the file is tight, locking remains the cleaner recommendation.
Float bias: Softer jobs and lower oil are helpful, but inflation data and Fed commentary still matter.

Today’s guidance:
Bias toward locking short-term closings. For longer timelines, cautious floating may be reasonable only with a clear risk ceiling and daily monitoring.

Stay safe and make today great!