Good Friday AM from your Hometown Lender. Let’s dive into the pre-weekend market analysis!
Bonds started the day with some small gains, but around 1:30pm ET bonds rallied hard, off to the races when President Trump came out and cancelled planned attacks against Iran and instead said a deal was close to being done as soon as this weekend.
Rate sheets today will be much better than yesterday’s AM pricing.Consumer sentiment data was a bit higher than expected which is of course good for the economy but did put a lid on the bond market for the moment.
Market Analysis – From a higher and better view:
Market Analysis – Quick Snapshot
Bonds: The 10-year Treasury is hovering around the mid-4.4% range, with yields still elevated but slightly calmer as oil prices ease on renewed U.S.–Iran diplomacy hopes. Bonds got a little relief — not a spa day, but maybe a decent chair massage.
Mortgage Rates: Freddie Mac’s latest weekly survey shows the 30-year fixed at 6.52% and the 15-year fixed at 5.84%. Daily tracking remains closer to the mid-6% range, with some daily readings around 6.55%–6.60%.
Inflation: This week’s inflation data stayed hot. May CPI rose 4.2% year over year, and May PPI posted its largest annual gain in roughly 3½ years as energy costs surged.
Consumer Mood: June consumer sentiment improved to 48.9, helped by lower gas prices, but inflation expectations remain elevated. Consumers feel a little better — but they are not exactly throwing an affordability parade.
Fed Watch: The Fed is expected to hold rates steady at next week’s meeting. The bigger question is whether sticky inflation, firm jobs, and energy volatility keep the Fed on hold longer — or eventually force a hike.
Politics / Geopolitics: Oil fell near two-month lows after President Trump called off threatened Iran strikes and peace hopes improved. That helps the inflation narrative, but Strait of Hormuz risk is still not something markets can ignore.
Market Analysis – What It Means
Today’s tone is a little better because oil is lower and consumer sentiment improved. But the bigger picture remains challenging: inflation is still too high, mortgage rates are still elevated, and the Fed does not have a clean reason to cut.
In plain English: the market is not broken, but it is still making buyers do math before breakfast.
Market Analysis – Housing & Mortgage Strategy
Buyers are still active, but they are payment-sensitive. This remains a structure-the-payment market.
The best conversations right now are about:
Seller credits, temporary buydowns, permanent buydowns, ARM options where appropriate, and a realistic refinance plan if rates improve later.
Sellers and builders who help solve the monthly payment problem have the best chance of turning interest into contracts.
Lock vs. Float
Lock bias: If closing within 30 days, the borrower is payment-sensitive, or the file is tight, locking is still the cleaner recommendation.
Float bias: Floating only makes sense with time, flexibility, and a clear trigger. Lower oil is helpful, but hot inflation and next week’s Fed meeting keep headline risk alive.
Today’s guidance:
Bias toward locking short-term closings. For longer timelines, cautious floating may be reasonable only with a clear ceiling for risk.
Stay safe and make today great!