Good Thursday AM on this First Day of March,
Busiest data day of the week (data below). Most of it stronger than expected which should not be bond friendly but things have been topsy turvy lately, and on the heels of Mr. Powell’s second day of testimony, sharing that he sees no signs of wage inflation bonds are not losing ground (bouncing between +5 and flat). If not for Mr. Powell’s commentary, bonds would likely otherwise be in a hole.
- Unemployment Jobless Claims: Actual 210K, Consensus 230K, Last 222K.
- Personal Income for Jan: Actual 0.4%, Consensus 0.3%, Last 0.2%.
- Core PCE for Jan: Actual 0.3%, Consensus 0.3%, Last 0.2%.
- Construction Spending for Jan: Actual 0.0, Consensus 0.3%, Last 0.7%.
- ISM Index for Jan: Actual 60.8, Consensus 58.5, Last 59.1.
The next few (two days) are important for bonds. New month, so we will see if the end of February improvement was based on fact or fiction. Bonds are not seeing any momentum (despite the Dow being down 157) and likely won’t have enough oomph to get break through the current resistance (2.84% on the 10-yr is a good place to start). If bonds don’t break through resistance, the normal pattern would be to go on sale taking rates higher again. Today is a good day to lock or at least to watch closely.
Make today great!