Good Tuesday morning from your Hometown Lender,
If you had looked at the economic data calendar today, you would have seen nothing scheduled. What was not listed was one of the most impactful reports, at least in my mind. The annual revisions to the labor market data on the actual pace of job growth over the trailing 12 months.
Why this is important is…
1) the Fed has based its monetary policy on the employment picture which was clearly faulty and
2) there must be some truth and responsibility in the accounting and reporting of this and all data.
The bottom line is that the U.S. added 911,000 fewer jobs over the 12 months that ended in March. 911k fewer jobs is more than half of all jobs that were reportedly created. Take a moment to read that again… That would bring the average pace of seasonally adjusted employment gains from 147,000 jobs a month over the period to a bit over 70,000.
Nonetheless, the run to lower rates is tired for the moment and rate are taking a bit of break. Bonds are slightly worse today and the inflation data over the next two days could either help extend it (if inflation comes in lower than expected) or will push bonds back a bit. With rate sheets having the best pricing we’ve seen in almost a year it’s not a bad time to take a breath and lock some loans.
Some higher level data:
🏦 Mortgage Market & Rate Analysis Tuesday, September 9, 2025
📊 Where Rates Stand Today
- 30-Year Fixed: ~6.55% (up slightly from yesterday, but still near the lowest levels since October 2024)
- 15-Year Fixed: ~5.70%
- 10-Year Treasury Yield: ~4.09% (up modestly from 4.05% yesterday)
- MBS Pricing: Slightly softer this morning after last week’s rally
For context: Even with today’s small uptick, rates remain well below early-2025 highs above 7%.
📅 Today’s Economic Focus – 9/9
- BLS Benchmark Revision: The annual update to payroll employment data was expected to revise job growth down by roughly 775,000 for the 12 months ending March 2025. The revisions were 911,000.
- Why it matters: Suggests the economy entered 2025 with less momentum than previously thought, reinforcing the cooling labor market narrative from last week’s weak August jobs report.
- Market impact: Unless the revision is dramatically different from forecasts, it’s unlikely to move rates much today. The bigger drivers will be this week’s inflation data.
🗓 Recap of the Week So Far & Last Week’s Drivers
- Friday’s Jobs Report (9/5): Only 22,000 jobs added in August, unemployment up to 4.3%. Triggered the biggest one-day drop in mortgage rates in over a year.
- Labor Market Signals: Jobless claims and ADP payrolls both softer than expected, pointing to easing labor demand.
- Productivity & Labor Costs: Q2 productivity revised up to 3.3%; unit labor costs slowed to 1.0% — a disinflationary combo supporting lower long-term yields.
- Services Sector: ISM Services PMI rose to 52.0, but weaker employment components reinforced cooling jobs trend.
- Trade Balance: July deficit widened more than expected, a marginal GDP headwind.
🏛 Political & Policy Developments
- Federal Reserve Outlook: Markets pricing in high probability of a 25 bp cut at the September 17 FOMC — first since December 2024.
- Historical Pattern: Mortgage rates often move before Fed actions. Once cuts are announced, rates can sometimes tick higher as markets “sell the news.”
- Legislative News: New “Trigger Leads” bill aims to limit resale of borrower data → better privacy, potential client retention boost.
- Treasury Secretary Commentary: Public calls for Fed to ease sooner add political pressure, but Fed remains data-driven.
🔮 Forward-Looking Rate Expectations
Short Term (This Week):
- Key Data Ahead: Producer Price Index (Wed), Consumer Price Index (Thu).
- Scenario 1 – Cooler Inflation: 10-yr yield could test 4.0% or below, opening small dip in mortgage rates.
- Scenario 2 – Hotter Inflation: Likely reverses part of last week’s rally; rates drift toward mid-6.6%.
Medium Term (Fall 2025):
- Continued labor softness + easing inflation → potential for 30-yr fixed to test high-5% range for well-qualified borrowers by year-end.
- Upside Risks: Stronger economic data, sticky inflation, or weak Treasury auctions.
📅 Key Economic Calendar – Sept 9–13, 2025
- Tue 9/9: BLS Benchmark Revision (Low–Medium impact unless surprise)
- Wed 9/10: Producer Price Index (PPI), 10-yr Treasury Auction (High impact)
- Thu 9/11: Consumer Price Index (CPI), Jobless Claims, 30-yr Auction (Very High impact)
- Fri 9/12: Univ. of Michigan Sentiment (inflation expectations) (Medium impact)
Posted by Noble Home Loans | Equal Housing Lender | NMLS #328275
For informational purposes only. Not a commitment to lend. Rates subject to change.
Stay safe and make today great!!!