Good Tuesday morning from your hometown lender,
Rates are steady again and reprice risk on the day is moderate.
The government shutdown is looming and if there is no deal struck today to avert it, in the short term, rates could be under pressure, but I expect it to be short lived (as long as the shutdown is equally short lived). Everyone expects that the government will pay its bills albeit potentially late, but it does erode some confidence in our monetary system when this happens. The longer a shutdown continues, the bigger the impact on mortgage rates (and not in a good way). And of course, government reports are delayed when no one is working so the all employment jobs report that the Fed is counting on to assess their policy, may be impacted depending on the length of the shutdown.
30,000 foot view:
🏦 Mortgage Market & Rate Analysis
Monday, September 30, 2025
📊 Where Rates Stand Today
- 30-Year Fixed: ~6.43%
- 15-Year Fixed: ~5.73%
- 10-Year Treasury Yield: ~4.17%
Trend: Rates are slightly higher than last week, but still well below the 7%+ levels we saw earlier this year.
📰 Today’s Economic Data – 9/30
- Case-Shiller Home Price Indicies (YoY) (September): Scheduled for release today.
Why it matters: Fiserv® Case-Shiller Indexes® measure the average change in home prices in a particular geographic market, covering more than 3,000 zip codes, 300 countries and 100 metropolitan areas. - Chicago Purchasing Manager’s Index (PMI): Today’s report was a miss at 40.6 vs 43.0.
- Consumer Confidence: Today was a miss at 94.2 vs 96.0.
- Government Shutdown Risk: Congress has less than 24 hours to avert a shutdown.
Impact: If a shutdown occurs, key economic reports (like Friday’s jobs report) could be delayed. Markets dislike uncertainty, so volatility in bond yields — and therefore mortgage rates — is possible.
🗓 Last Week’s Recap
- GDP Final Estimate (Q2): Revised up to 2.2%, showing stronger growth than expected.
- Durable Goods Orders: Came in stronger, signaling business investment remains solid.
- New Home Sales: Surged 20% in August, hitting a three-year high.
- Jobless Claims: Fell to 218,000, showing the labor market remains tight.
- Fed Rate Cut (9/17): The Fed lowered its benchmark rate by 25 bps to 4.00%–4.25%.
🏛 Political & Policy Developments
- Government Shutdown Looms: Without a deal, federal agencies could close at midnight tonight.
- Mortgage Impact: Possible processing delays for FHA, VA, USDA loans and slower verifications.
- Fed Outlook: Chair Powell reiterated a “data-dependent” stance.
- Election-Year Pressure: Political voices are calling for faster rate cuts, but the Fed is balancing inflation risks with growth concerns.
🔮 Rate Outlook & What to Watch
- Short Term (This Week): If ISM Manufacturing and ADP Employment show weakness, rates could ease. Stronger data or shutdown jitters could keep rates in the 6.4%–6.6% range.
- Medium Term (Fall 2025): If inflation cools and labor softens, rates could dip into the high-5% range by year-end.
📅 Key Economic Calendar – Sept 30–Oct 4, 2025
- Tue 9/30: ISM Manufacturing Index → Medium
- Wed 10/1: ADP Employment Report → High
- Thu 10/2: Jobless Claims → Medium
- Fri 10/3: Personal Income & Spending, PCE Index → Very High
- Fri 10/3: Nonfarm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate → Very High
💡 Takeaway
Mortgage rates are holding near their lowest levels in almost a year, but recent economic data has added some upward pressure. With a possible government shutdown and key inflation and jobs reports due this week, markets could get bumpy. If you’re considering a refinance or purchase, now is a smart time to review your options while rates remain favorable.
Stay safe and make today great!