Good Monday morning from your Hometown Lender,

Rates are continuing to tread water in the same range as we have been in for two weeks.

If (IF) the government can avoid a shutdown as we are officially out of money, this will be a big week for data, and I don’t think we will end the week in the same rate range. The Fed has made it clear that employment is the key to lower rates. This week brings the four employment reports: ADP Payrolls, Challenger Job Cuts, Unemployment Claims, and the BLS Jobs Report. We have a lot riding on this week’s data and rates will get pushed one way or the other by Friday. The bond market has been pulling out some of the already baked in expectations for future cuts. The next Fed meeting is still weeks away at the end of October, but there is no more important data than what we will get this week.

From a bit higher vantage point:

🏦 Mortgage Market & Rate Analysis

Monday, September 29, 2025

📊 Where Rates Stand Today

30-Year Fixed: ~6.32%–6.45%
15-Year Fixed: ~5.42%–5.58%
10-Year Treasury Yield: ~4.17%

Trend: Rates are holding steady after last week’s modest rise, driven by stronger-than-expected economic data and cautious Fed messaging.

📰 Today’s Economic Snapshot

No major data releases today, but markets are digesting last week’s GDP revision and preparing for Friday’s BLS Jobs report
Bond Market Tone: Treasury yields are slightly elevated, reflecting investor caution ahead of key inflation data later this week

🗓 Weekly Recap & Market Drivers

GDP Final Estimate (Q2): Revised up to 2.2%, signaling stronger-than-expected growth
Durable Goods Orders: Beat expectations, showing business investment remains solid
New Home Sales: Surged 20% in August, hitting a three-year high — a sign of resilient housing demand despite higher rates
Jobless Claims: Fell to 218,000, reinforcing a tight labor market
Mortgage Demand: Purchase applications rose modestly, while refinance activity slowed after last week’s rate dip

🏛 Political & Policy Developments

Federal Reserve Outlook: After cutting rates by 25 basis points on Sept. 17, the Fed signaled a “wait-and-see” approach. Chair Powell emphasized that future cuts will depend on incoming data
Election-Year Dynamics: Political pressure for more aggressive rate cuts is building, but the Fed remains focused on inflation and employment data
Housing Policy Watch: Lawmakers are reviewing FHLBank structures and liquidity access, with affordability remaining a top concern
Global Trade: Tariff negotiations continue to influence inflation expectations and investor sentiment

🔮 Rate Outlook & What to Watch

Short Term (This Week): Friday’s BLS Jobs report will be the key driver. A cooler reading could push rates lower; a hot print may trigger a rebound. ISM Manufacturing (Tuesday) and ADP Employment (Wednesday) will offer clues on growth and labor trends
Medium Term (Fall 2025): If inflation cools and labor softens, well-qualified borrowers could see rates in the high-5% range by year-end. Risks include sticky inflation, strong wage growth, or weak Treasury auction demand

📅 Key Economic Calendar – Sept 30–Oct 4, 2025

Tue 9/30: ISM Manufacturing Index → Medium impact
Wed 10/1: ADP Employment Report → High impact
Thu 10/2: Jobless Claims → Medium impact
Fri 10/3: Personal Income & Spending, PCE Index → Very High impact
Fri 10/3: Nonfarm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate → Very High impact

💡 Mortgage rates are holding near their lowest levels in nearly a year, but recent economic data has added some upward pressure. The Fed cut rates earlier this month, but future moves will depend on inflation and jobs data. If you’re considering a refinance or purchase, now’s a great time to explore your options while rates are still historically favorable.

Stay safe and make today great!