Good Tuesday AM from your Hometown Lender,

Welcome back! It’s already shaping up to be a busy week…

Rate sheets this morning will slip quite a bit as bonds open to losses that wipe out all of last week’s gains. It really sounds worse than it is. The losses are likely tied to the drama surrounding tariffs, as a federal appeals court ruled most of President Donald Trump’s tariffs are illegal (tariffs remain in place, though pending appeal, just like the last time they were found to be illegal). The White House has until October 14 to file an appeal, next stop… Supreme Court (SCOTUS). This is likely a fun start to a fun week (sarcasm)… and it’s already Tuesday.

Jobs data is the big deal of the week, starting with tomorrow’s JOLTS data and Friday’s BLS jobs data.

Acting BLS commissioner Bill Wiatrowski is not a Trump lapdog like the nominated E.J. Antoni, but has been Deputy Commissioner since 2015 and looks to be a lifer… meaning he may go along to get along. Now, this is just one redneck’s opinion, and arguably the head of the BLS shouldn’t influence the data or “interpretation” of the data (man, that one single word sure does open doors, doesn’t it?). However, I can’t help but think that we will see some amazing recovery in the employment numbers this Friday… but of course that data would NEVER be manipulated.

Here’s the quick summary for mortgage rates… they really can’t fall much while inflation rises and the labor market is resilient. Doesn’t matter if the Fed cuts short-term rates; mortgage rates would only move a bit lower.

Rate outlook for the next 15 days…

Lock ’em

There’s no reason to float this week, because there is just too much risk without a crystal ball. A stronger than expected report could push rates instantly higher, and without time to see the dust settle and recover.

🏡 Daily Mortgage Market Update – September 2, 2025

📊 Current Mortgage Rates

Rates remain steady across the board, holding at some of the best levels we’ve seen in recent weeks:

30-Year Fixed: 6.50% (↔)
15-Year Fixed: 5.86% (↔)
Jumbo 30-Year: 6.45% (↔)
FHA 30-Year: 6.06% (↔)
VA 30-Year: 6.08% (↔)
7/6 SOFR ARM: 5.90% (↔)

Source: Mortgage News Daily

📈 Bond Market & Treasury Yields

10-Year Treasury: 4.26%, slightly up from last week.
Yield curve remains flat, signaling economic uncertainty and slower growth ahead.
Mortgage spreads vs. 10-Year Treasury: 236 bps, suggesting lenders are holding margins steady.

🧮 Economic Indicators

Core PCE Inflation (Fed’s preferred gauge): Rose to 2.9% YoY in July—inline with expectations.
Personal Income & Spending: Both increased in July (+0.4% and +0.5%, respectively), showing resilient consumer activity.
Pending Home Sales: Down 0.4% MoM, with a spike in canceled contracts—buyers remain cautious.
GDP Q2 Revision: Upgraded to 3.3%, indicating stronger-than-expected growth.

🏛️ Political & Regulatory News

Federal Reserve Outlook: Officials signal a cautious stance. Governor Waller hinted at a potential 0.50% rate cut if labor market weakens further.
Global Trade: U.S. trade deficit widened sharply in July as firms rushed to beat potential tariff changes.
EU Tariff Update: European Union plans to remove tariffs on U.S. industrial goods—could boost manufacturing and housing-related sectors.

🔮 Rate Forecast & Lock Guidance

Short-Term Outlook (3–5 days): Rates likely to remain stable with slight upward bias. Locking is recommended for borrowers in process.

Medium-Term Outlook (30–60 days):

If inflation cools and labor data weakens, expect modest rate declines.
If economic resilience continues, rates may hover or rise slightly.

Loan Officer Guidance: Lock now if you’re within 30 days of closing. Volatility risk remains medium.

🎯 Brad’s Strategic Takeaway

This is a prime moment to educate clients: rates are stable, but economic crosswinds could shift quickly. Use this calm to position yourself as a proactive guide—whether it’s helping buyers lock in today’s rates or prepping refinancers for future opportunities.

Posted by Noble Home Loans | Equal Housing Lender | NMLS #328275
For informational purposes only. Not a commitment to lend. Rates subject to change.

Stay safe and make today great!