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Market Analysis 9.11.25: CPI Data

Good Thursday morning from your Hometown Lender,

The recent days have made us (or at least me) pause as we have seen front and center, the worst parts of humanity. The senseless killings happen in every corner of the world. The U.S. is not immune. Today is an opportunity to do some soul searching on who we are, as we take time to digest the recent horrific murders and remember the 2977 people who perished in the attacks of 9/11. It is a very somber day, and also one to be thankful we have the privilege to live in the United States, the most amazing country.

The CPI data was the big-ticket item on the calendar today.

Lots of concern over what a stronger report would do to expectations for next week’s Fed meeting. Well, this morning saw CPI inflation data bring the highest year-over-year inflation reading we’ve seen in 2025. It was though, as markets expected (mostly). Secondarily, the unemployment report was released, and it was at the highest number of unemployment applications in almost four years. The Fed has made it clear, employment or rather, unemployment is the first concern.

The 10yr has now touched 4.00%. I’m all a flutter waiting to see what happens next. Expectations are now at 100% for a rate cut next week, 90% for another in October, and 85% for one in December. That all sounds great but if Mr. Powell does not echo those same sentiments next week, rates will worsen even after the Fed cuts. That has happened the last three times the Fed has cut.

The time to lock is before the Fed meeting.  

🏦 Mortgage Market & Rate Analysis – Thursday, September 11, 2025

📊 Where Rates Stand

  • 30-Year Fixed: ~6.25%–6.39% depending on source
  • 15-Year Fixed: ~5.24%–5.55%2
  • 10-Year Treasury Yield: ~4.09% (steady vs. yesterday)

Trend: Rates are at their lowest levels since October 2024, down from early-2025 highs above 7%.

Even with the Fed expected to cut rates next week, much of the improvement has already been priced in. That’s why we’ve seen rates drop before the Fed meeting.

📅 Today’s Economic Data – 9/11

  • Consumer Price Index (CPI): Most important inflation report of the month.
  • Why it matters: Tracks price changes and is key to Fed’s inflation fight.
  • Market reaction:
    • Cooler CPI → Yields fall, mortgage rates lower.
    • Hotter CPI → Yields jump, lenders reprice worse.
  • Weekly Jobless Claims: Fresh labor read. Higher claims = softer labor = rates-friendly.
  • 30-Year Treasury Auction: Strong demand helps keep yields and mortgage rates contained.

🗓 This Week’s Backdrop

  • Jobs Report (9/5): +22k jobs, unemployment 4.3% → weakest in years, biggest mortgage rate drop in a year.
  • Labor Revisions (9/9): Job growth overstated by 911k → confirms labor cooling.
  • Producer Price Index (9/10): Wholesale inflation softer than expected, but markets waited for CPI.
  • Other Labor Signals: Jobless claims + ADP both softer last week.
  • Productivity & Costs: Productivity 3.3%, labor costs 1.0% → disinflationary, bond-friendly.

🏛 Political & Policy Developments

  • Fed Outlook: Markets see 100% chance of a 25 bp cut Sept 17 FOMC.
  • Historical Pattern: Rates often move before Fed acts; can bounce after as markets “sell the news.”
  • Legislation: New bill limits “trigger leads” → improves borrower privacy, aids client retention.
  • Global Context: Political shifts in Europe/Asia + trade debates influencing bond demand and U.S. mortgage rates.

🔮 Forward-Looking Rate Expectations

Short Term (This Week):

  • Cooler CPI → 10-yr could test 4.0%, pushing 30-yr rates toward ~6.2%.
  • Hotter CPI → Reversal risk, rates back toward mid-6.5%.

Medium Term (Fall 2025):

  • Labor softness + easing inflation could push well-qualified borrower rates into the high-5% range by year-end.
  • Risks = sticky inflation, strong data, or weak Treasury auction demand.

📅 Key Economic Calendar – Sept 11–13, 2025

  • Thu 9/11: CPI, Jobless Claims, 30-yr Auction (Very High impact)
  • Fri 9/12: Univ. of Michigan Sentiment (inflation expectations) (Medium impact)

“Mortgage rates are now at their lowest point in nearly a year, thanks to softer job growth and signs of easing inflation pressure. The Fed is expected to cut rates next week, but history shows mortgage rates often move before the Fed — and can bounce afterward. Today’s inflation report is the next big swing factor. If you’re considering a refinance or purchase, now is a smart time to review your options while rates are still favorable.”

Posted by Noble Home Loans | Equal Housing Lender | NMLS #328275
For informational purposes only. Not a commitment to lend. Rates subject to change.

Stay safe and make today great!!