Happy July 3rd from your Hometown Lender,

Markets were waiting for today’s early read (by one day as the report is typically released on a Friday) on the BLS jobs report. The expectation or hope was the amount of new jobs created would be low enough (as the Adp payroll report was) to compel the Fed to cut rates in July. 

Alas, that was not to be the case.

The Jobs report rarely disappoints to create high volatility. Today’s report was consistent with that. Markets were hoping for a new job print of 110k, we got 147k. Unemployment rate went from 4.2 to 4.1 but markets were hoping for 4.3.

Lots of reasons why, the most important being to reduction in the labor force but that has no bearing as bonds sold off as they should and we just now have to wait and watch how the economy performs.

Reprice risk on the day is low, the bond market closes at 2pm ET, and although we sometimes see bonds drift lower after jobs data that is a bit less likely today as traders now take off for the long holiday weekend.

I’ll leave it there for today.

Have a Happy 4th, stay safe, and make today great.