Good Friday AM from your Hometown Lender,

Bonds took a beating yesterday on no good reason other than selling begets selling.

We ran through the support line and right into the next trading channel which just makes us wait and work harder for the improvement we need. This week was sparse on economic data, and the only news was the Fed meeting. There is a donut on the economic data calendar for today as well, and markets are hanging on to every word regarding softening in the tariff stance with China. Ahead of the country’s meeting over the weekend, President Trump quipped that maybe 60% or 80% is a more appropriate tariff rate than the 145% tariff currently in place

If the US and China do shake hands on a solid trade deal this weekend (unlikely), especially one that lowers tariffs, it could help push the 10-year Treasury yield lower (which would be good for rates). At least that’s what the pundits say (although I am not sure any has a crystal ball right now). The thought is it would ease inflation worries and calm markets, so more investors would feel safe buying bonds (which drives yields down). But if the deal is just political fluff with tariffs still sticking around, then yields probably stuck because investors stay nervous about inflation and uncertainty. So… a real deal means lower yields. A fake deal means more of the same.

Stay safe , enjoy the weekend, and first, make today great!!!