Good Friday, AM from your Hometown Lender,

Closing out the week and month today. I can’t believe June is upon us already.

Rates are finishing the week about the same as yesterday.

The PCE inflation data (the Feds go to inflation metric) came out this morning, showing inflation continues to drift lower, with the back-to-back monthly readings the softest since the pandemic in 2020. Markets are still uncertain what effects the tariffs and trade wars will have on prices in the coming months, which is part of the reason rates are holding where they are.

A federal appeals court has temporarily paused the suspension of tariffs, and the Trump administration has insisted it has multiple options to push them through. Other headlines show Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said that the US-China talks are a bit stalled, and President Trump has said that China ‘totally violated’ its trade agreement from earlier this month. Markets are showing signs, of being tired of all the drama, and we aren’t seeing much reaction to any of it in stocks or bonds.

The U.S. housing market has nearly 500,000 more sellers than buyers, and that will likely cause home prices to fall.

Redfin says there are an estimated 1.9 million home sellers and an estimated 1.5 million homebuyers. That’s 33.7% more sellers than buyers. A year ago, sellers outnumbered buyers by just 6.5%, and two years ago, buyers outnumbered sellers. There haven’t been this many home sellers since March 2020, Redfin says. When sellers are competing for a small pool of buyers, that indicates a buyer’s market. And when it’s a buyer’s market, home prices are volatile because buyers have negotiating power. Sellers outnumber buyers because high home prices and mortgage rates are scaring buyers off. Also, the mortgage rate lock-in effect is slowly easing.

And last, what about that Big Beautiful bill?

The tax and spending bill recently passed by the House will, according to the CBO, increase the national debt by $3.3 trillion through 2034. However, the bill isn’t fiscally expansionary. This is because the sum of the tax cut extensions, which have been in place since 1/1/18, costs $5 trillion. The newly proposed raft of tax and spending cuts collectively saves $1.7 trillion, reducing the Treasury loss to $3.3 trillion.

Stay safe, have a terrific weekend, and first, make today great!!!