Good Tuesday, AM from your Hometown Lender,

A little economic data was released today, all of it weak.

There are fewer jobs open, and there is lower consumer confidence. Neither of which is surprising. The bond market has been improving incrementally with the weaker data and lack of tariff news, but it has all been a setup for the next three days when we run the Gauntlet of Data (that is not an actual term, but I may copyright it).

Tomorrow is ADP payrolls, Chicago PMI, and Pending Home Sales. Thursday is Job cuts, unemployment claims, Construction Spending, and ISM Manufacturing. Friday is the biggest day with the BLS Jobs report. If the data is weak (weaker than expected), rates will continue to improve (sans any new tariff news); if the data is stronger, we will see rates move higher quickly.

The Fed meets next week, and all this data will be staring the Fed straight in the face. I do think the data will be weaker, and I do see that the economy is slowing, but I don’t think it will be enough to get the Fed to cut this soon, and I don’t ever like floating rates into big news. Lock and float down on improvement.

Stay safe and make today great!