Good Thursday AM from your Hometown Lender,

Rates are trending a little lower today.

Yay… Volatility remains high as markets react (and overreact) to every new social post and headline. Day-to-day forecasts for rates are a total crapshoot, there is no clear path forward as we go into each new day.

The headline Durable goods orders for March were a monster but the devil is in the details and when we remove transportation as so many cars were purchased last month to pull forward ahead of tariffs, the core number fell well below expectations (+9.2 percent, ex-transportation unchanged). The rest of the data was so-so other than the below headline (rut row)…

Home sales last month dropped to their slowest March pace since 2009

Rates are only going to drop if the market sees some stability and US assets become desirable again. For the moment, the world does not want to buy US assets but that will change if not by desire, by need. There could also be a black swan event (I could see the Fed start buying bonds again to push rates lower instead of being forced to drop rates). Think about that. The Fed would own more of our own debt so the deficit is not as problematic… we can renegotiate the debt terms with ourselves if needed, the value of those bonds will go up as rates come down, and the Fed and President Trump both get to save face with the lower rates. Just my thoughts and there are certainly negatives to the idea, but I think it is a solution to consider.

Stay safe and make today great!