Good Monday AM, from your Hometown Lender,

There are zero economic data releases today.

Not even any B or C tier data. This week does get busier from Wednesday on with Retail sales, several other Central Bank announcements, unemployment claims, etc…  The bond market closes early on Thursday and is closed Friday for Good Friday.

Over the weekend…

The White House in a very quiet filing, walked back the tariffs on most consumer electronics (you can thank Apple CEO Tim Cook for this). The truth is, there is no way the US can manufacture an iPhone. It is not completely about cost; we just don’t have the skilled labor currently. We can of course build out the manufacturing over the next 5-10 yrs but then the cost will likely double. It is a big trade off most consumers won’t accept. The iPhone is the revenue driver for Apple and the company will not perform well in a US centric mandate… There are lots more examples just like this. The tariff equation becomes much more complicated than just the US vs China.

With the softening stance, the bond market is showing a little life today. Not a huge amount but the 10yr is back to 4.42% and mortgage bonds are +40bps. I don’t want to say that too loudly to not anger the gods, but it is a better day than Friday.   

I know there is a lot of news about increased inventory.

I wanted to share the below infographic to put it into more context. Sometimes it is good to take a step back and see things over a longer time frame. The arc of time is important. 

Stay safe and make today great!