Tuesday AM from your Hometown lender,

There is no economic data today although the calendar is full from tomorrow on with Friday’s Jobs report being the biggest report of the month. How will the reduction in Federal workers impact the data? I could see the jobs report being very bad and if it isn’t this month, it will be next month.

Despite no economic data today, there is a ton of volatility and speculation.

We are in uncharted waters now. Tariffs are now imposed on Mexico and Canada; they have been increased on China, and Europe has to be shaking as they know they are next. Tariffs are not new but the combination of tariffs, slowing growth, massive government layoffs and spending reductions muddy the waters. Instead of driving concerns about inflation, traders now more worried about trade retaliation, reduction in spending and how the soup will taste not just the individual ingredients. Expectations that the economy and labor market will take a hit, with markets now pricing in 3 potential rate cuts by the Fed this year. If fear rules, the outlook for mortgage rates to move lower will continue.

The 10-yr Treasury now at a four-month low…

As traders panic over the intensifying trade war bludgeoning global growth (credit Bloomberg for the wording on that one). The ‘Trump trade’ that pushed rates higher to end last year now falling apart as stocks plummet and bonds benefit.

US aid to Ukraine has been stopped.

I am in disbelief how Zelensky could be so myopic. It is not about who is right or wrong. He is continuing to allow his country and countrymen to suffer, and nothing is more important than making it stop.

Stay safe and make today, great!!!