Good Monday AM from your Hometown Lender,
Rate sheets this morning should be similar to Friday.
Bonds started the day off with some losses, but were already recovering before this morning’s weak ISM manufacturing data pushed them into positive territory. Reprice risk on the day is low, starting the week off slow but picking up steam each day and will end with a bang on Friday with the BLS jobs data. Sentiment is still that we will see economic slowdown and the Fed will cut rates 2-3 times by the end of the year.
The 10yr note is down below 4.20% today…
We’re not just feeling its tougher out there. It is. According to a new Redfin analysis, just over 41,000 home-purchase agreements in the United States fell through in January, or 14.3% of all homes that went under contract during that month. This is the highest cancellation rate for this time of year since at least 2017, up from 13.4% a year earlier.
Top 5 Metros w/ the Highest Share of Deals Falling Through
| U.S. Metro Area | Share of pending home sales that fell through (Jan. 2025) | Share of pending home sales that fell through (Jan. 2024) |
| Atlanta | 19.8% | 16.6% |
| Orlando, FL | 18.2% | 16.8% |
| Las Vegas | 17.9% | 16.4% |
| Houston | 17.8% | 15.5% |
| Jacksonville, FL | 17.8% | 16.4% |
Tariffs on Mexico and Canada to go into effect tomorrow. Howard Lutnixk says they could be watered down but I don’t think the President sees it similarly. Higher tariffs are economically beneficial. The conventional concern has been it will weigh down bonds and slow, if not stop, the recent improvement. I see it the other way. Tariffs will not be restrictive and inflationary and I see bonds and rates improving.
I’m sure by now you’ve seen the headlines about the Trump-Zelensky dust up…
The horrible part is that tens of thousands more will die… Here is a link to some of the best meme’s Zelensky meme – Search Images
Stay safe and enjoy your day.