Good Friday morning from your Hometown Lender. Here’s today’s market analysis:

Yesterday was a bad day for bonds. That made it 3 in a row (now 4 with today). Rates are higher again this am.

When the market opened, bonds were off to a great start but that faded quickly, and bonds continue to be under pressure. Reprice risk today is high; bonds are choppy and anything that happens in the headlines about the Middle East that affects oil prices will see bonds and rate sheets react.

I am still surprised that no one is discussing that problems in the Strait of Hormuz impact the US little, we don’t get much oil from there and as a net exporter of oil, higher oil prices actually bring in more revenue to our economy.

Market Analysis – From a higher and better view:

Market Analysis –Quick Snapshot

10-year Treasury: ~4.26% (still elevated—so mortgage pricing is behaving accordingly).
MBS (UMBS 30yr 5.0): 99-00 (yesterday’s close; the “gravity” behind rate sheets).
Mortgage rates (Freddie Mac weekly): 30Y 6.11% | 15Y 5.50% (as of 3/12).
Mortgage rates (MND daily survey): 30Y 6.41% today (+0.06).
Today’s big macro print: PCE inflation + GDP revision (soft growth + “meh” inflation).
Current events still driving volatility: Middle East war → oil → inflation expectations; plus a temporary U.S. waiver on Russian oil to ease supply stress.

1) Market Analysis -What Hit This Morning (CPI)

No CPI today—but we got the Fed’s favorite inflation gauge (PCE) plus a growth gut-check.

PCE Inflation (January)

Headline PCE: +0.3% MoM | +2.8% YoY.
Core PCE: +0.4% MoM | +3.1% YoY (still sticky—this is the Fed’s “hmm…” number).

Personal Income / Spending (January)

Personal income: +0.4% MoM
Disposable personal income: +0.9% MoM
PCE spending: +0.4% MoM
Saving rate: 4.5%

Growth (Q4 revision)

Q4 real GDP revised down to ~0.7% annualized (softer than prior estimates/expectations).

Narrative you can use:
“Inflation didn’t surprise today—growth did. The economy looks softer without falling apart, which is normally bond-friendly. The wildcard is oil: if energy stays hot, it can keep inflation expectations sticky even when growth cools.”

2) Fed Watch

Base case into the March 17–18 Fed meeting: cautious hold, then “data + oil” decide the next move.
Street debate right now: economists in a Reuters poll still leaned toward a June cut, but war-driven inflation risk is the big reason that call keeps getting pushed around.

3) Market Analysis -Where Mortgage Rates Actually Are

Freddie Mac (weekly benchmark): 6.11% on the 30-yr (up from 6.00% last week).
MND daily survey (real-world pulse): 6.41% today.
Why rates aren’t improving faster: the 10-yr is still mid-4s and MBS pricing is not exactly floating on angel wings.
Today’s MBS tone: “decent start + lower oil + weaker data”… but still within a headline-driven range.

4) Market Analysis -Housing Market Check

Existing-home sales (Feb): 4.09M SAAR (+1.7% MoM).
Inventory: 1.29M homes = 3.8 months supply (better, but not “balanced market” territory).
Listings trend: active listings +7.9% YoY in February (more choices—finally).

My read: still mild seller-leaning nationally, but shifting toward “negotiation-by-price-point,” not “everyone bring your strongest offer and your therapist.”

5) Political Backdrop & Fed Independence

Two current-event currents matter for rates today:

Oil / war risk premium: Goldman lifted near-term Brent expectations to $100+ for March amid volatility and disruption risk.
Policy response: the U.S. issued a temporary waiver allowing certain Russian oil sales already in transit—aimed at easing supply stress, but politically noisy.
Consumer mood check: Michigan sentiment slipped in early March, tied to gasoline prices and war anxiety.

Translation: markets are trying to price inflation using spreadsheets while geopolitics keeps scribbling in the margins with a Sharpie.

6) Market Analysis -What This All Means for Rates Going Forward

Scenario	What happens next	Rate impact
1) “Soft growth, calm oil” (best case)	GDP stays soft-ish, inflation doesn’t re-accelerate, oil premium fades	10-yr drifts lower → mortgage pricing improves steadily
2) Base case: “headline chop”	Data is mixed, oil stays volatile, markets reprice daily	Range-bound rates; short good lock windows
3) “Oil stays hot” (negative)	Sustained $100+ oil feeds inflation expectations	10-yr stays firm → mortgage rates resist falling

7) Practical Takeaways

Positive: inflation data wasn’t a problem today, and income is rising—consumer isn’t collapsing.
Also positive: housing transactions are slowly picking up and inventory is improving.
The “be honest” piece: if oil remains elevated, mortgage rates can stay stubborn even with softer growth.

8) Lock vs Float

45+ days out: float with rules (clear targets). Softer growth + stable inflation can help… if oil doesn’t steal the plot again.
Closing inside 15–30 days: I’m still lock-leaning—headline risk can reprice rate sheets fast.

Stay safe, have a great weekend, and make today great!