Good morning on this best day of the week, Wednesday from your Hometown Lender,

Today’s market analysis – It is a quiet week in bonds. I can’t say the same for other assets as equites are bobbing up and down, metals are trying to get some positive momentum but are struggling, and crypto is flailing. The limited data today shows employment is lagging. That should be positive for bonds and push rates lower, but it isn’t enough to get traders moving yet. We were all waiting for Friday’s jobs report to be released but, that has now been delayed until February 11^th.

From a higher level:

Market Analysis – Quick Snapshot — Wed, Feb 4, 2026

10-year Treasury: ~4.28% (still stuck in the “tight range” phase of its emotional journey).
Fed funds rate: 3.50%–3.75% (held steady at the Jan 28 meeting).
Mortgage rates (national ballpark, top-tier):
- 30-yr fixed: 6.20% (+0.03)
- 15-yr fixed: 5.76% (flat)
- 30-yr jumbo: 6.35% (flat)
- 7/6 SOFR ARM: 5.64% (+0.04)
- 30-yr FHA: 5.84% (+0.03) | 30-yr VA: 5.86% (+0.03)
MBS tone: “moved down slightly,” likely minimal impact to rate sheets today.

1) Market Analysis – What Hit This Morning (CPI)

No CPI today. The market movers were jobs (ADP) and services inflation signals (ISM Services).

ADP (Jan private payrolls):

+22,000 jobs vs +48,000 expected (softer than forecast).
Gains concentrated in education/health (+74k); professional/business (-57k) and manufacturing (-8k) were notable drags.
Important caveat: ADP can be noisy vs the official BLS report.

ISM Services (Jan):

PMI 53.8 (unchanged; still expansion).
Prices paid 66.6 (higher → inflation pressure still a thing).
New orders 53.1 (slower), export orders 45.0 (contracting).

The weird wrinkle this week: the January BLS jobs report is delayed because of the brief partial shutdown (ended Tuesday), and no new release date was set at the time of reporting.

Narrative you can use:
“Today’s data is mixed for rates: hiring looks soft in ADP, but services still show elevated input prices. With the official jobs report delayed, bonds can stay range-bound and headline-sensitive—so mortgage pricing is more about day-to-day bond moves than one clean ‘aha’ data point.”

2) Fed Watch

The Fed is still positioned as patient / data-dependent at 3.50%–3.75%.
Powell reiterated tariffs likely show up as a “one-time price increase” (important because it argues against reflexive “higher-for-longer” if inflation is otherwise cooling).
Next scheduled meeting: March 17–18 (decision March 18).

3) Market Analysis – Where Mortgage Rates Actually Are

Today’s reality is still: low-6s on 30yr fixed, mid-5s on 15yr, and ARMs meaningfully lower.

30yr fixed 6.20% (two-week “high,” but the range has been tight).
7/6 SOFR ARM 5.64% (useful tool for the right borrower profile and horizon).

4) Housing Market Check

Existing-home sales (Dec): 4.35M SAAR (+5.1% MoM).
Inventory: 1.18M (about 3.3 months’ supply).
Mortgage applications: down 8.5% for the week ending Jan 23 (holiday-adjusted week; also reflects how jumpy demand is when rates wiggle).

5) Political Backdrop & Fed Independence

Markets have a new variable: Fed leadership headlines and perceived independence risk.

Senate Democrats asked to delay Warsh’s nomination proceedings amid ongoing DOJ investigations involving current Fed officials.
Fed Governor Stephen Miran resigned from his White House advisory role amid the same independence concerns.

Rate impact: even when economic data is “normal,” these headlines can add a volatility premium—and volatility is basically gravity for mortgage rate sheets.

6) Market Analysis – What This All Means for Rates Going Forward

Scenario	What has to happen	What it likely means
Base case (most likely): Range + chop	Mixed growth + sticky services prices + delayed “big” labor data	Mortgage rates stay low-6s, drifting within a narrow band.
Better-for-rates	Clear disinflation signal in services + cooler growth	Brief windows where pricing improves (but likely not a straight line).
Worse-for-rates	Re-acceleration in inflation / higher term premium / headline volatility	Rates test higher (mid-6s pressure) even without Fed hikes.

7) Practical Takeaways

Payment sells the house: keep the focus on monthly strategy (credits, buydowns, product fit) rather than waiting for a magic headline.
Use ARMs intentionally: great tool for the right borrower timeline; not a religion.
Expect “rates moved for no obvious reason” days while key government data is delayed.