Good Tuesday morning from your Hometown Lender,

Yesterday saw mortgage bonds lose ground fast after the ISM manufacturing data came in a bit hotter than expected but then settled down for the day after that to stay flat through the day. Rate sheets today are likely to be about the same as yesterday, and bonds will likely be calm through the day. Reprice risk is low, and there is little urgency to lock anything now.

Market Analysis – from a higher vantage point:

Market Analysis – Quick Snapshot (Tue, Feb 3, 2026)

10-year Treasury: ~4.29% (still living in the 4.2–4.3% range).
Fed funds rate: 3.50%–3.75% (still on “pause,” with a split committee).
Mortgage rates (national ballpark):
- 30-yr fixed: 6.17% (+0.01)
- 15-yr fixed: 5.76% (+0.01)
- 7/6 SOFR ARM: 5.60% (-0.01)
MBS (UMBS) cue: 4.5 97.65 (-0.05) | 5.0 99.76 (flat) | 5.5 101.27 (flat).

1) Market Analysis – What Hit This Morning (CPI)

No CPI today — and the bigger story is actually “missing data.”
A partial shutdown has delayed key Bureau of Labor Statistics releases, including JOLTS (scheduled today) and Friday’s jobs report, so the market is trading with fewer “official” signposts than usual.

Narrative you can use (client-friendly):
“Today is one of those weird market days where the biggest headline is that the usual headlines aren’t happening. With key labor reports delayed, rates are mostly taking their cues from the bond market’s existing range rather than reacting to fresh government data.”

2) Fed Watch

The Federal Reserve held policy steady at 3.50%–3.75% at the late-January meeting, with two dissenters preferring a cut.
Today, Stephen Miran reiterated he still wants more than 1% of cuts this year (publicly… loudly… on TV).
Next key date: March 17–18, 2026 Federal Open Market Committee meeting (decision March 18).

Translation: the center of the committee still looks “higher for longer,” even if a couple voices want to move sooner.

3) Market Analysis – Where Mortgage Rates Actually Are

Today’s “headline” rate picture is basically low-6s and sideways:

30-yr fixed: 6.17% (up 0.01)
15-yr fixed: 5.76% (up 0.01)
Jumbo: 6.35% (flat)

For context, Freddie Mac’s weekly survey (as of Jan 29, 2026) has the 30-yr at 6.10% and 15-yr at 5.49%.

Market mechanics note: in a data-light environment, rate sheets tend to track the 10-year (4.2–4.3%) + MBS pricing more than vibes.

4) Housing Market Check

Latest national existing-home snapshot (Dec 2025):

Sales: 4.35M SAAR (+5.1% MoM)
Inventory: 1.18M units; 3.3-month supply
Median price: $405,400 (+0.4% YoY)

My read: demand is still there, but affordability remains the bouncer at the velvet rope.

5) Market Analysis – Political Backdrop & Fed Independence

Two big threads markets are chewing on:

Fed leadership politics: Kevin Warsh’s nomination is driving plenty of headlines, and some Raphael Bostic commentary suggests the real challenge would be building committee consensus (not just having a strong opinion).
“Lower long rates” isn’t a switch the Fed can flip: the White House wants lower borrowing costs, but long-term yields are dominated by inflation expectations, fiscal/term premium, and growth assumptions—so a new chair alone may not magically drop mortgage rates.

And hovering over everything: the shutdown drama is disrupting economic data flow and adding fog to the dashboard.

6) Market Analysis – What This All Means for Rates Going Forward (three-scenario grid)

Scenario	What has to happen	Rate impact (directionally)
Base case (most likely): Range-bound	Data gaps + “good enough” growth keep the 10-year ~4.2–4.3%	Mortgage rates chop in the low-6s
Better-for-rates (bullish bonds): Soft landing + cooler inflation	Growth cools without a re-acceleration in inflation; Fed leans dovish	10-year drifts lower; mortgages test lower
Worse-for-rates (bearish bonds): Hot growth / sticky inflation / fiscal term premium	Inflation proves stubborn or term premium rises	10-year pushes higher; mortgages back up

7) Practical Takeaways

For buyers: payment strategy matters more than the “perfect rate.” Consider seller credits, temporary buydowns, and ARM vs fixed comparisons (if it fits the borrower’s risk tolerance).
For sellers: serious buyers still exist—pricing + presentation is the difference between “multiple showings” and “multiple price cuts.”
For agents/partners: this week’s weirdness is the labor-data blackout, so be ready for “rates moved on no news” days.

8) Lock vs Float

Float (carefully) if you have time, can tolerate volatility, and are watching for a bond-friendly catalyst once normal data flow resumes.

Lock if you’re inside 15–30 days, your payment is tight, or you’d lose sleep watching the 10-year bounce around 4.2–4.3 like it’s trapped in a glass box.

Stay safe and make today great!