Market Analysis 11.7.25: Incremental Improvement

Good Friday morning from your Hometown Lender,

Rates are continuing to see some incremental improvement. Both mortgage bonds and the 10-yr yield are testing technical resistance levels. There is a lot of uncertainty in the air, pun intended as we have a real problem with air traffic as well as government shutdown day 38…

Market analysis from a higher view:

Daily Market & Rate Update – November 7, 2025

Here’s what’s driving rates today and how it all ties together for buyers, sellers, and homeowners.

Market Analysis: Quick Snapshot (for the skimmers)

Rates: 30-year fixed is still in the low 6s. Freddie Mac’s latest survey (through yesterday) has the 30-year at 6.22%, up slightly from 6.17% last week but down from 6.79% a year ago. Freddie Mac+2GlobeNewswire+2
10-year Treasury: Trading right around 4.09% today, basically flat vs. yesterday and still in that low-4s range that’s been anchoring mortgage pricing. Trading Economics+2Investing.com+2
Fed: The Fed cut again on October 29 (another 0.25%), taking fed funds to 3.75–4.00%, and announced it will end balance-sheet runoff on December 1. Powell is very clear: a December cut is not a sure thing. U.S. Bank+2Nuveen+2
Economy: Services side of the economy is still growing (October ISM Services at 52.4), with strong new orders (56.2) but soft hiring. Reuters+3Institute for Supply Management+3PR Newswire+3
Politics: The government shutdown has now hit Day 38, the longest in U.S. history. The Senate is trying yet again to vote on a funding bill while flight cuts and food-aid drama escalate. Yahoo+4CBS News+4NorthJersey.com+4

Market Analysis – Your one-line takeaway:

We’re still in a low-6% mortgage world, with a “slowing but not crashing” economy, a cautious Fed, and a very loud sideshow in Washington.

Under the Hood: Rates & Bonds

10-year Treasury (your main rate driver)

The 10-year yield is sitting around 4.09–4.11% today. Trading Economics+2YCharts+2
For context, it briefly flirted with 5% earlier this fall, so we’re off the peak but still elevated versus the last decade.

Mortgage rates

Freddie Mac PMMS (week of November 6):
30-year fixed: 6.22%
15-year fixed: right around 5.5% Freddie Mac+2GlobeNewswire+2
Freddie’s own line: this level can save a median homebuyer thousands per year versus earlier this year, and affordability is slowly improving, even if it doesn’t feel like a miracle. Freddie Mac+2GlobeNewswire+2

Realistically, for a well-qualified borrower, a 6.2–6.4% 30-year fixed with normal costs is the neighborhood you’re walking in today.

“We’re not in the 3s anymore, but we’re also not stuck in the 7s. We’re in a middle lane that we can actually plan around.”

For the deeper thinkers in us!

Market Analysis – Why Rates Are Here Today

1. Data: Services solid, labor picture fuzzier

Services:
October ISM Services PMI came in at 52.4, an eight-month high, with new orders at 56.2 (strong demand) and employment at 48.2 (companies cautious on hiring). Reuters+4Institute for Supply Management+4PR Newswire+4
That says “economy still moving,” not “falling off a cliff.”
Jobs / labor:
Initial jobless claims rose modestly last week to about 228k, up from ~219k the week before—still not crisis levels, but consistent with a slow cooling in the job market. Yahoo Finance+1
Bigger issue: the official monthly jobs report is missing again. For the second straight month, the Labor Department cannot publish nonfarm payrolls or the unemployment rate because of the shutdown. That’s a major data blackout for the Fed and markets. Reuters

So the macro message is:

Demand is okay,
Labor is softening,
And the usual dashboard lights (jobs report, full inflation data) are literally turned off right now.

2. The Fed: Two cuts in, now in “prove it” mode

On October 29, the Fed:
Cut the fed funds rate 0.25% to 3.75–4.00%, the second cut in a row. U.S. Bank+2Nuveen+2
Announced it will end quantitative tightening on December 1, stopping the runoff of Treasuries and reinvesting all principal. It will still let agency MBS run off but reinvest those payments into Treasury bills, not new MBS. Federal Reserve+2Chatham Financial+2
Powell’s press conference message: another cut in December is “not a foregone conclusion”, and the committee is split on how fast to ease from here. Financial Times+2Barron’s+2

Net-net:

The Fed moved from “all about inflation” to “we’re watching jobs and markets too,” but it’s not promising a straight line lower on rates.

3. Politics & the Shutdown: Day 38 and counting

The shutdown is now on Day 38, officially the longest ever. KOMO+3CBS News+3WPEC+3
A few things that matter:
The FAA has ordered a 10% cut in capacity at 40 major airports, and airlines have already cancelled roughly 2,000 flights as of today. KREM+4ABC News+4CBS News+4
Federal judges have forced the administration to fully fund SNAP for November, after an earlier plan to only partially pay benefits because of the shutdown. Holland & Knight+1
The Senate is taking yet another swing at a funding bill today; expectations are low, fatigue is high. CBS News+2Yahoo+2

For rates, it’s a tug-of-war:

Shutdown hurts growth → usually good for bonds/rates.
But it also raises uncertainty and risk premiums (missing data, political dysfunction, FAA mess), which keeps the 10-year from dropping as much as it otherwise might.

What This Market Analysis Means for Buyers, Agents, and Homeowners Buyers

You’re house shopping in a low-6% rate environment, not the panic 7–8% zone from before. Freddie’s numbers show year-over-year improvement: 6.22% now vs. 6.79% a year ago. Freddie Mac+2GlobeNewswire+2
The macro backdrop (“slowing but not crashing”) actually helps: it gives us room to negotiate credits, buydowns, and terms without a feeding frenzy on every listing.
The right question today isn’t “Will rates hit 3% again?” It’s:

“Does this payment make sense for my family today, and do we have a game plan to improve the rate later if the math works?”

Agents / REALTORS®

A visible 6-handle plus a softer macro tone is your cue to re-engage the pipeline that ghosted when rates were in the 7s.
Where you can really add value now:
Structuring offers with seller credits to permanent or temporary buydowns when appropriate
Using credits to offset closing costs so buyers keep reserves
Partnering with lenders (you) who can explain why rates are where they are, not just quote them
Washington noise is high; your calm, simple explanation of “what this means for your buyer today” is a differentiator.

Existing Homeowners

High-rate bucket (7%+):
Today’s low-6s might make sense for a refi if:
The payment drop is meaningful, and
The time in the home is long enough to justify the costs.
5-something “golden handcuff” bucket:
A straight rate-and-term refi may pencil.
Focus becomes: cash-out refi vs. HELOC vs. doing nothing and keeping that cheap first lien.
As always, everything is case-by-case: credit, goals, risk comfort, time horizon.

Market Analysis – Lock vs. Float –

Closing in ≤ 30 days

I’d be leaning toward locking:
You’re exposed to:
More shutdown headlines
Senate vote theater
Any surprise from the next few data releases
Bad surprises typically move rates up faster than good surprises move them down.

Closing in 45–90 days

“If today’s cost for this rate worsens by about 0.25%, we lock.”

I’d consider floating with guardrails, for example:

“If the 10-year breaks above roughly 4.25%, we lock that day.” Trading Economics+2Investing.com+2