Good Friday morning from your Hometown Lender,

Today’s market analysis: Mortgage rates getting a little love from Fed President Williams all the way from Chile. He sees a December rate cut on the table. That moved the odds back in our favor and the 10yr note has come down to 4.08%. The news has also given a boost to stocks as lowering borrower costs lifts all boats both at the consumer and the corporate level.

More data was shelved as the BLS said no inflation data will be released before the fed meeting in 19 days. Interesting times for sure. Keep in mind that markets don’t like uncertainty which also translates to holidays (especially when only US markets are closed) so with Thanksgiving next week and everyone taking some needed time away from their screens, we are likely to see rates leak higher. It is not a bad idea to lock somewhere in here.

Market analysis from a higher vantage point:

Snapshot (quick hits)

10-yr UST: ~4.06% (slightly softer today). Trading Economics
2-yr UST: ~3.50–3.55% (front-end easing with rising cut chatter). FT Markets+1
30-yr mortgage (daily): ~6.37% (Bankrate). Weekly PMMS (11/20): 6.26%. Bankrate+1

Market Analysis – Political & economic currents (why they matter for rates)

Shutdown resolved; funding through Jan 30, 2026. Agencies are back and rebuilding calendars; political risk shifted to a late-January deadline. Near-term, this reduces headline risk and lets markets refocus on data. Reuters+1
Revised data calendar is thin before the Dec 9–10 FOMC. BLS confirms no October CPI/jobs, September jobs came 11/20, September PPI now due 11/25, and November CPI/jobs print after the FOMC (Dec 18/Dec 16). Translation: the Fed will enter December without fresh October/November inflation or employment. Bureau of Labor Statistics
Trade détente with China. The administration extended tariff exclusions and paused some higher reciprocal tariffs into Nov 2026; several trackers note a step-down (e.g., fentanyl-related tariff back to 10%). Lower goods-inflation impulse at the margin is supportive for rates. The White House+1
Energy backdrop. Recent outlooks suggest more balanced/surplus supply into 2026, a mild disinflation tailwind via headline energy. Reuters

Fresh data & Fed speak (today)

PMIs (flash Nov): Manufacturing slowed (PMI ~51.9), while services stayed firm; inventory build = potential growth drag ahead. Rates read: softer factory momentum is bond-friendly unless services stay hot. Reuters+1
Michigan sentiment (Final Nov): Index 51.0; still historically weak = cautious consumer. Soft sentiment tends to cap yields unless inflation expectations re-accelerate. Institute for Social Research+1
Fed minutes (Oct 28–29) this week: Show a policy divide, reinforcing “data-dependent” going into December. Federal Reserve+1
Fed speak today: NY Fed’s John Williams flagged scope for a near-term cut, which yanked front-end yields lower and lifted cut odds intraday. Financial Times

Fed Watch (Dec 9–10)

Where odds stand: It’s volatile. Earlier today, several trackers showed >70% odds of a 25 bp cut after Williams’ remarks; other reads still put “no change” near 2/3—a sign of how jumpy pricing is with scant data. Net: coin-flip with big intraday swings. Financial Times+1
Why the swings matter: With October/November core data missing until after the meeting, the Committee may err toward small moves + cautious guidance. That setup can leave the 10-yr near 4% and mortgages mid-6s unless next week’s Sep PPI (11/25) surprises. Bureau of Labor Statistics

Market Analysis – What rates and the 10-year did

USTs: The 10-yr is back near 4.06%; 2s10s ~+0.5 pp as the 2-yr slips on cut chatter. Implication: positively sloped curve helps marginally with MBS appetite and rate-sheet stability. Trading Economics+1
Mortgages: Public trackers keep averages mid-6s; Freddie’s weekly print 6.26% stayed inside a tight 10-bp band the past month—good for rate lock predictability. Bankrate+1

How today’s politics + data translate to mortgage pricing

Shutdown end + thin pre-FOMC data = range-bound bias. With fewer shock prints before Dec 10, intraday moves will come from PMIs, sentiment, and Fed soundbites. Range near 10-yr ~4.0–4.2% keeps sheets mid-6s barring a surprise. Trading Economics+1
Trade & energy easing → slight disinflation tailwind. Tariff pause/extension + balanced oil outlook nudge inflation risk lower at the margin—incrementally supportive for MBS vs. October. The White House+1
Watch next: Sep PPI (Tue 11/25) is suddenly more important given missing October CPI/PPI; a hot core would push 2-yr up and pressure rate sheets quickly. Bureau of Labor Statistics

What it means (buyers • agents • homeowners)

Buyers: With averages around 6.3–6.4%, every 0.05–0.10% wiggle hits DTI. Use seller credits + 2-1 / 1-0 buydowns to lock payment while we navigate a thin calendar. Bankrate
Agents: Frame this weekend’s tours around payment ranges (not single-point quotes). Political calm post-shutdown helps appraisals & timing, but Fed speak can still jolt sheets midday. Reuters
Homeowners: If your note is ≥7%, today’s setup can pencil for rate/term; cash-out remains case-by-case given pricing tiers and equity goals. Benchmark with PMMS 6.26% + your LLPAs. Freddie Mac

Market Analysis Lock vs. float (framework—not a prediction)

Lock now if: inside 15–20 days, tight DTI/CTC, or payment sensitivity is high; also lock if cut odds fade back toward “no change.” Reuters
Cautious float if: >30 days and you’ll auto-lock on any MBS-friendly rally tied to soft PMIs/sentiment or a tamer Sep PPI next week. Reuters

Market Analysis Next 7 days (pipeline prep)

Tue (11/25): Producer Price Index (Sep)—front-end/yield-curve sensitive; can move MBS quickly. Bureau of Labor Statistics
Week of 12/16–12/18 (after FOMC): Nov jobs 12/16, Nov CPI 12/18—the bigger rate movers arrive post-decision. Prep clients now for post-FOMC repricing risk on those prints. Bureau of Labor Statistics

Little morale jolt: bonds prefer quiet—but they speak fluent Fed-ish. Keep alerts on; enjoy the calm while it lasts.

Stay safe, enjoy the weekend, and make today great!