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Market Analysis 11.17.25: Bonds Are Flat

Good Monday AM from your Hometown Lender,

This morning bonds are flat, with a full week ahead of us of more Fed speakers, minutes from the last Fed meeting, and the first signs of old data and new data as jobs data is supposed to come out on Thursday. Market analysis: reprice risk today is not too high, although we could see bonds drift lower there shouldn’t be much risk of reprices.

Technically, we are above the downward trendline so we could see yields tick higher. The 10yr note yield is sitting at 4.14% and we need to get below 4.11% quickly or we will test the 4.21% Fibonacci line. There is no urgency to lock first thing, but still a locking bias.

Market analysis from a higher level:

Snapshot (quick hits)

Market analysis – Data-flow status (what’s delayed & what’s next)

  • Retail Sales: Sept report posted Fri 11/14; October Retail Sales was not released; next one on the calendar is November Retail (due Dec 17). Census.gov+1
  • Inflation prints: BLS notes schedules are being updated; credible reporting suggests October CPI/PPI may be skipped, making November CPI (slated for Dec 10) the next “clean” inflation read. Bureau of Labor Statistics+2Reuters+2
  • Industrial Production (G.17): Fed flags Nov 18 release delayed; annual revision still Nov 24. Federal Reserve

Fed Watch (next meeting cut/hold odds)

  • Next FOMC: Dec 9–10, 2025. Market odds for a 25 bp cut are now ~45–50%—basically a toss-up after hawkish pushback and the data gap. MNI Website+1

Market analysis – what rates and the 10-year did

  • USTs: The 10-yr sits low-4s; 2s10s near +0.5pp as front-end yields drift lower on softer growth vibes and data uncertainty. Trading Economics+1
  • Mortgages: Public trackers keep averages in the mid-6s, consistent with last week’s Freddie print. Bankrate+1

Current economic events today (11/17) that matter for rates

  • Treasury supply: 3-yr & 10-yr auctions today—tails/coverage can nudge the 10-yr and MBS spreads intraday. TreasuryDirect
  • Fed speak: Vice Chair Jefferson today urged caution on further cuts—adds to the “toss-up” feel for December. Reuters
  • This week: NAHB HMI Tue 11/18; Existing Home Sales Thu 11/20; Jobless claims Thu as usual. National Association of Home Builders+1

Market analysis – how the delayed data could move rates (practical)

  • Near term (this week): With Oct Retail & PPI missing, auctions + Fed­-speak + housing data will steer the day-to-day. Big auction concessions could lift the 10-yr a few bps; solid demand does the opposite. Calculated Risk+1
  • Next inflection: Nov CPI (Dec 10) becomes the first broadly trusted inflation check post-shutdown; hot = 10-yr up / MBS down (worse pricing). Cool = 10-yr down / MBS up (better sheets). Bureau of Labor Statistics
  • Retail radar: With Oct skipped, Nov Retail (Dec 17) will carry extra weight for holiday momentum and growth tracking. Census.gov

What it means

  • Buyers: Mid-6s means every 0.05–0.10% matters to DTI. Leverage seller credits + 2-1/1-0 buydowns to lock a payment while the data calendar normalizes. Bankrate
  • Agents: Expect more headline-driven intraday moves until November CPI hits; set payment ranges instead of single-point quotes on flyers. Bureau of Labor Statistics
  • Homeowners: If your note is ≥7%, today’s levels can pencil for rate/term or targeted cash-out; sensitivity to the next clean inflation print is high. Freddie Mac

Market analysis –lock vs. float (decision framework—not a prediction)

  • Lock now if: inside 15 days, tight on DTI/CTC, or your deal can’t absorb a hawkish Fed headline or weak auction.
  • Cautious float if: >30 days out and you’ll auto-lock on any MBS-friendly move (e.g., strong auction or benign Fed commentary).

Next 7 days

Tiny morale boost: bonds are introverts—auctions are their networking events. Let’s hope they mingle politely.

Stay safe and make today great!