Good Thursday morning from your Hometown Lender,
Government open, Day 1!
Rates may slip a bit as bonds slowly recover from a slightly weaker open. Despite the government now officially back in business there is still no idea of when data will start flowing again. Today would have been the day we saw CPI inflation numbers, but that data would have been collected during the shutdown and there was no one to collect it.
Anyway, there is not a lot of risk that rates will make any sudden moves today, but markets have also failed to build on yesterday’s improvements. The 10yr yield has crept back up over 4.10 and market expectations of a December Fed rate cut have dropped a bit. It’s not looking likely that rates will fall unless when we eventually get the missed economic data there is a lot of weakness shown in the labor market and inflation is cooler than expected.
Market Analysis – From a higher level:
Market Analysis – Snapshot (quick hits)
- 10-yr Treasury: hovering near ~4.11% mid-day. MarketWatch+1
- Mortgage rates (national avgs): ~6.24–6.29% for 30-yr fixed (Bankrate today; MND daily 11/12). Latest Freddie weekly was 6.22% (Thu 11/6). Bankrate+2Mortgage News Daily+2
- DC watch: Shutdown ended last night; funding runs through Jan 30; agencies reopening. Some October federal data may never be released. Reuters+1
- Next data: Jobless claims today (weekly, 8:30a ET). Retail Sales (Census) and PPI (BLS) on Fri, Nov 14. Unemployment Insurance+2Census.gov+2
Market Analysis – What rates and the 10-year did
- The 10-yr is steady in the low-4s after the funding deal; intraday drift has been tight. MarketWatch
- Lender rate sheets are broadly sideways to a hair better versus Wednesday, consistent with averages holding in the mid-6s. Bankrate+1
Market Analysis – Why this is happening today
- Uncertainty premium faded: Reopening removes a macro overhang and normalizes agency operations, which markets like. Reuters
- Event risk ahead: With fewer October prints, traders are leaning on Retail Sales/PPI for the next directional shove. Census.gov+1
What it means for buyers, agents, and homeowners
- Buyers: Mid-6s rates improve qualification at the margin; even 0.05–0.10% can help DTI on typical price points. Bankrate
- Agents: With the shutdown over, expect verifications/data feeds to resume—cleaner timelines and fewer “TBD due to closure” notes. Reuters
- Homeowners: If your note rate is ≥7%, it’s worth a refi check—cash-out is still case-by-case.
Lock vs. float (framework, not a prediction)
Structuring: Consider float-downs, 2-1/perm buydowns, or ARM vs. fixed aligned with hold period and risk tolerance.
Lock now if you’re inside 15 days, need exact cash-to-close, or can’t absorb a negative surprise from Fri’s data.
Cautious float if timeline is >30 days, you can tolerate swings, and you’ll lock on any MBS-friendly move.
