Good Monday AM from your Hometown Lender,

Rates took a hit this morning after news came out over the weekend that the shutdown could be nearing an end this week.

The initial reaction for bonds was worse; mortgage bonds saw some recovery before the open but that stalled quickly. Things have been calm since then, so reprice risk looks to be low on the day, but this doesn’t point to any kind of improvement coming for rate sheets this week.

For all of us mortgage nerds, welcome news that starting Nov. 15, Fannie Mae is eliminating its 620 minimum middle credit score requirement for purchase and refinance home loan credit decisions.

Market Analysis from a higher view:

Daily Market & Rate Update – November 10, 2025

Here’s what’s driving rates as we start the week, and what it means for anyone buying, selling, or refinancing right now.

Market Analysis – Quick Snapshot (for the skimmers)

• Rates: 30-year fixed is still in the low 6s. National averages today are around 6.26–6.27% on a 30-year fixed, with refis right in that same neighborhood. Bankrate+2Wall Street Journal+2
• Freddie Mac: Last Thursday’s survey put the 30-year at 6.22%, up slightly from 6.17% the week before, and below the highs from earlier this year. Freddie Mac+1
• 10-year Treasury: Sitting around 4.10% today, a touch higher than late last week but still well off the near-5% scare from earlier this fall. Trading Economics+2FRED+2
• Economy: October services data show the economy is still growing, jobless claims ticked up but remain historically low, and consumer sentiment keeps sliding. SCA ISR+4Institute for Supply Management+4PR Newswire+4
• Politics: The government shutdown is now in Day 40. Flight cuts are ramping up, thousands of flights have been cancelled over the last several days, and a Senate deal is inching forward but not done. Fox News+5Reuters+5Yahoo Finance+5

Bottom line:

We’re still in a low-6% mortgage world with a “slowing but not crashing” economy, a Fed that’s cautiously easing, and a very loud shutdown backdrop.

Market Analysis – Under the Hood: Rates & Bonds

10-Year Treasury

• The 10-year yield is around 4.10% today, up a hair from 4.11% on Thursday. Trading Economics+1
• That’s below the ~5% peak we flirted with earlier this fall and just under the long-term average (~4.25%). YCharts

Mortgage Rates

• Freddie Mac PMMS (released Nov 6):
• 30-year fixed: 6.22%
• Freddie’s language: this level lets a typical homebuyer save thousands per year versus earlier this year, and affordability is slowly improving. Freddie Mac+1
• Bankrate today:
• 30-year fixed: 6.26%
• 15-year fixed: 5.62% Bankrate+1

For a well-qualified borrower, you’re still realistically quoting low-6s on a 30-year fixed with normal points and costs.

“We’re not back to 3%, but we’re also not stuck in the 7s. We’re in a middle lane we can actually plan around.”

Market Analysis – Why Rates Are Here Today

1. Recent data: “slow, not stopped”

Services (the bulk of the economy)

• October ISM Services PMI came in at 52.4, up from 50 in September and the strongest reading this year. New orders jumped to 56.2 (healthy demand), while the employment component stayed in contraction at 48.2 (cautious hiring). Institute for Supply Management+3Institute for Supply Management+3PR Newswire+3

Jobs / labor market

• In the absence of real data, expectations are that weekly jobless claims rose to about 229k for the week ended Nov 1, up from ~219k the prior week. Still low by historical standards, but moving in the direction of a softer labor market. Reuters
• On top of that, the shutdown has halted a lot of official data collection and publication – including some major reports – so markets are flying half-blind. Reuters

Consumers

• University of Michigan sentiment for November (preliminary) dropped to 50.3 from 53.6 in October – a clear sign people are worried about the outlook. SCA ISR+1
• That’s “nervous but still spending,” not outright panic.

Mortgage demand

• MBA’s latest survey (through last week) shows applications down slightly as rates ticked up, with refi share at 57.0% of total apps and ARMs at just 8.7%. Mortgage News Daily+3MBA+3MBA Newslink+3
• Translation: people are still refi-ing off higher loans, and ARM appetite is low – fits your “case-by-case, not gimmick” worldview.

2. The Fed: cut, pause, and watch

From the October 29 FOMC meeting:

• The Fed cut the fed funds rate by 0.25% to a 3.75–4.00% target range – the second cut this year. Federal Reserve+1
• They announced they’ll end balance-sheet runoff on December 1 – no more letting Treasuries roll off. Maturing MBS will be reinvested into Treasury bills, not new MBS. Federal Reserve+2Schwab Brokerage+2
• The statement and subsequent commentary stressed that whether they cut again in December is not a done deal – it depends on the incoming data (which is harder to read because of the shutdown). Chatham Financial+1

So the Fed is no longer slamming the brakes, but it’s not flooring the accelerator either. Long-term rates care more about future inflation and growth than about one meeting.

3. The Shutdown: Day 40 and hitting travel hard

• The shutdown that started on October 1 has now reached Day 40, officially the longest ever. Reuters+2Yahoo Finance+2
• Airlines have been ordered by the FAA to cut flights at 40 major airports – starting with a 4% reduction and ramping up to 10% by November 14. NBC4 Washington+4Reuters+4AP News+4
• Over 1,500 flights were cancelled today (Monday), after 2,950 cancellations and nearly 10,800 delays on Sunday – the worst day since the shutdown began. Reuters+2AP News+2
• The Senate has advanced a new bill to end the shutdown, but nothing is signed yet, and food-aid and safety concerns (SNAP, air traffic control) are now front-page issues. The Guardian+3Yahoo Finance+3Yahoo Finance+3

For rates, it’s a push-pull:

• Negative for growth: Every extra day of shutdown is a drag on Q4 GDP, which should be bond-friendly.
• Positive for risk premia: Political dysfunction, data gaps, and visible travel chaos make investors want extra yield to own long-term Treasuries.

That’s why you’re seeing the 10-year hover in the low-4s instead of breaking much lower, even with softer data.

Market Analysis – What This Means for Real People

For Buyers

• You’re in a low-6% rate environment, not the 7–8% panic zone. Freddie shows 6.22% vs. higher levels earlier this year, which translates into real payment savings. Freddie Mac+1
• The economy is slowing, not crashing. That generally helps:
• Slightly more leverage on price and credits
• More openness to seller-paid buydowns or closing costs
• The smart question isn’t, “Will we ever see 3% again?” It’s:

“Does this payment work for my family now, and do we have a plan if rates move lower later?”

For Agents / REALTORS®

• A 6-handle on rates + weaker sentiment = time to re-engage the ‘gave up at 7%’ crowd.
• Where you can really shine:
• Structuring offers with seller credits toward permanent or temporary buydowns (when appropriate).
• Framing the conversation around monthly payment and cash in the bank, not just the headline rate.
• Partnering with lenders (you) who can explain: “Here’s why rates are where they are today, not just what the rate is.”

For Existing Homeowners

• If they’re in the 7s or higher:
• Today’s low-6s might make sense if the payment drop and time horizon justify the costs.
• If they’re in the 5s from a prior cycle:
• Straight rate-and-term usually doesn’t pencil out. The real conversation becomes:
• Refi with cash-out vs.
• HELOC vs.
• Do nothing and preserve the cheap first lien.
• As always, you’re walking them through options, trade-offs, and timelines, not pushing a product.

Market Analysis – Lock vs. Float – How I’d Frame It Today

Closing in ≤ 30 days

• I’d lean lock-biased:
• We’ve got:
• A still-evolving shutdown story
• CPI for October dropping this Thursday (Nov 13) Bureau of Labor Statistics
• Ongoing Fed speak
• Bad surprises typically move rates up faster than good surprises move them down.

Closing in 45–90 days

• Float with guardrails rather than vibes:
• Examples of rules you can set with clients:
• “If the 10-year breaks above ~4.25%, we lock.” Trading Economics+2FRED+2
• “If the cost for this rate worsens by about 0.25%, we lock.”
• Put those guardrails in an email so the client feels like there is a plan, not a guess.

Market Analysis: On product choices

In a noisy, mid-cycle market like this, that “menu + guidance + no pressure” approach is exactly what stands out.

Do the analysis:

Showing fixed, ARMs, and buydowns side-by-side

Explaining pros/cons around time horizon, payment, and risk

Letting the client decide what feels responsible

Stay safe and make today great!