Good Thursday AM from your Hometown Lender,

There were quite a few economic reports that would have been released this morning were it not for the gov shutdown. OK, well only 3 notable absences, but there would have been a 3 week backlog of jobless claims in addition to typically spicier Retail Sales and PPI data.

As it stands, Philly Fed was the only scheduled data released at 8:30am and it had no impact. Instead, it was a glut of block trades (read all about them here) just after 9am that sent 10yr yields lurching higher. With that, yields have rejected the 4.0% floor yet again and are now up modestly on the day. MBS are following suit, down just under an eighth of a point. 

A little higher view:

Today (10/16): What actually moved rates

• Key government data are delayed. Because of the federal shutdown, several reports that normally steer bonds and mortgages aren’t arriving on time. CPI (normally yesterday) was officially pushed to Fri, Oct 24, and other staples like the jobs report and retail sales have seen delays or uncertainty. Translation for borrowers: volatility is being driven more by headlines and private proxies than hard government numbers. Bureau of Labor Statistics+2Reuters+2
• One bright, housing-specific data point did hit: Builder confidence rose to 37 in October (highest since April), with future sales expectations jumping to 54. That’s consistent with lower mortgage rates nudging demand—and with builders dangling incentives. National Association of Home Builders+1
• Rates & bonds snapshot: Freddie Mac’s last published survey (Thu, Oct 9) had the 30-yr fixed at 6.30% (15-yr 5.53%), roughly the lowest in about a year. In markets, the 10-yr Treasury is hovering near ~4.0–4.1%, and the benchmark 30-yr UMBS 5.5% has been holding around ~101-04 in recent sessions—supportive of steady rate sheets. (Intraday lender pricing can vary.) Mortgage News Daily+4Freddie Mac+4AP News+4
• Fed speak tilted dovish: Governor Miran reiterated he’s focused on inflation/employment, not asset-price froth, and has argued for larger cuts; Governor Waller today signaled support for another 25 bp cut at the late-October meeting, citing mixed labor data. Chair Powell this week framed the outlook as a balance of risks to growth, jobs, and prices. Net effect: markets see more easing ahead—constructive for mortgage rates if inflation cooperates. Reuters+2Reuters+2

This week at a glance (Oct 13–18)

• What was scheduled vs. what’s real: Calendars still show PPI, retail sales, jobless claims, and Philly Fed today. In practice, many releases are delayed or partially disrupted; CPI’s one-off rescheduling highlights how ad-hoc this week is. Expect headline-driven trading until normal publication resumes. Reuters+3Equals Money+3Bureau of Labor Statistics+3
• Housing pulse: MBA reported applications down 1.8% w/w (week ending Oct 10). Refi is still off the mat but uneven; purchase apps slipped 3%. Lower rates are helping at the margin, but buyers remain choosy. MBA Newslink+1
• Equities & sentiment: Stocks have drifted higher on AI/tech earnings, while bond yields eased slightly—typical “risk-on, but cautious” tape in a data vacuum. AP News
• Politics as the new macro: The shutdown (Day ~16) is now a macro factor in its own right—Treasury pegs the cost at up to $15B per week in lost output, and Congress remains gridlocked. Trade rhetoric (e.g., potential tariff escalation with China) adds rate-market headline risk. Reuters+2CBS News+2

What this means for mortgage rates (plain-English)

• Near-term (days to 2 weeks): With official data thin, rate sheets likely stay range-bound and choppy intraday. If markets get further confirmation of cooling inflation or softer labor via private proxies—and if the Fed continues to tee up an Oct cut—downside in rates has a modest edge. Conversely, any hot inflation surprise (once CPI drops on Oct 24) or tariff escalation could nudge rates higher quickly. Reuters+1
• Into late October: Markets are pricing odds of another Fed cut at the Oct 29 meeting. If CPI on Oct 24 is benign, MBS pricing should benefit, keeping mortgage rates near or slightly below current levels. A CPI upside surprise would likely push the 10-yr higher and widen lender risk premiums intraday. Reuters+1
• Q4 setup: Builder confidence improving and rates near 1-year lows suggest incremental improvement in purchase activity, especially where sellers price realistically and builders offer incentives. That said, application data show buyers still price-sensitive—think “slow thaw,” not “spring bloom.” National Association of Home Builders+1

Lock/Float framing for novice readers

• If you’re within ~30 days of closing: Consider a lock bias. You’re exposed to Oct 24 CPI and late-month Fed risk—both can move pricing fast. A small reprice worse can wipe out the benefit of waiting. (Ask about float-down features just in case the market breaks your way.) Bureau of Labor Statistics
• 60–90 days out: A measured float can make sense if you can stomach volatility and watch the calendar. Key checkpoints: Oct 24 CPI and the Oct 29 FOMC. Build in rate-cap strategies (lock extensions, renegotiations) before those dates. Bureau of Labor Statistics+1
• Refi shoppers: If your current note is well above 6.5–7%, today’s landscape already pencils; if you’re at low-6’s, you’re in “optional” territory—run payment/recoup math and watch CPI. AP News

Risks to watch (in order of “could whack rates”)

• Trade/tariff headlines (China rhetoric can move inflation expectations and yields). Reuters
• CPI on Oct 24 (delayed but decisive for the Fed’s path). Bureau of Labor Statistics
• Fed meeting Oct 29 (sizing/tone of the cut; guidance on labor & tariffs). Reuters
• Shutdown duration (longer = more uncertainty and sporadic data = jumpier markets). Reuters

Stay safe and make today great from your hometown lender!