Good morning on this best day of the week Wednesday, from your Hometown Lender,

Rates are improving just a little.

Bonds picked up a little bit of gains yesterday after Fed Chair Jerome Powell commented that the Fed will likely stop its balance sheet runoff soon (quantitative tightening). He also signaled that another Fed rate cut is likely, but markets are already pricing in two more cuts this year and more in early 2026. Today there isn’t much else happening, we would have gotten the CPI inflation data but that was pushed off till 10/24 due to the shutdown.

From a higher-level view:

Mortgage Market & Rate Outlook — Wed, Oct 15, 2025

What’s moving markets today

• Shutdown, Day 15: The Senate failed—again—to advance funding; more votes are expected, but no breakthrough is visible. That keeps key federal data on ice and leaves markets headline-sensitive. CBS News
• Powell yesterday: In a widely watched talk, the Fed Chair said the end of balance-sheet runoff (QT) may be nearing as money-market strains appear—read: the Fed could soon stop shrinking holdings, a modestly supportive signal for longer-term bonds if inflation cooperates. Reuters+2Federal Reserve+2

Data calendar (thin… by design)

• Most federal releases are paused during the shutdown (BLS, BEA, Census). Exception: BLS will publish September CPI on Friday, Oct 24 (8:30 a.m. ET) to satisfy Social Security’s deadlines. That becomes the next big macro catalyst for rates. Reuters+1

Where rates and yields sit this morning

• 10-yr Treasury: hovering near ~4.02%–4.03% (multi-week lows). Translation for clients: a calmer backdrop for rate sheets—until the next headline. Trading Economics+1
• Mortgage rates: National trackers show the 30-yr fixed around the low-6s (~6.3%) with lenders nibbling slightly better vs. last week’s levels. (Daily indexes vary by points/LLPAs.) Mortgage News Daily+1

The set-up for the rest of this week

• With data dark, policy noise is louder. Markets will trade every shutdown headline and any fresh Fed commentary. Fewer hard numbers = more sensitivity to speeches and politics. CBS News
• QT “near the end” is a gentle tailwind for duration if inflation doesn’t re-accelerate; it reduces one source of Treasury supply pressure at the margin. But it’s not a rate-cut—just a balance-sheet pacing story. Reuters

What it means for borrowers (plain English)

• Today’s vibe: Sideways to modestly constructive. Lenders often keep pricing tight during headline risk; intraday reprices can swing with Hill news. CBS News
• Near-term path: Barring a shock, markets likely mark time into Oct 24 CPI. A hot CPI would push yields/rates higher; a cool CPI could open more downside. Bureau of Labor Statistics

Lock / float game plan

• Consider locking if you’re inside 30 days, your DTI is tight, or you simply prefer certainty amid political noise.
• Float with guardrails if you’re 45–60+ days out, have room in ratios, and will set a target rate with alerts—knowing Oct 24 CPI is the next true mover. (We’ll be ready either way.)

Quick bullets you can share with agents & clients

Rates: Roughly low-6s on standard 30-yr scenarios; day-to-day quotes depend on points/LLPAs. Bankrate

Bonds: 10-yr ~4.0% area, supportive but headline-sensitive. Trading Economics

Politics: Shutdown continues; more Senate votes expected, no clear path yet. CBS News

Next big date: Fri, Oct 24 — CPI. Mark it. Bureau of Labor Statistics

Powell: Signals QT wind-down is approaching; not a rate cut, but reduces one headwind for longer-dated bonds. Reuters

Stay safe and make today great!