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Market Analysis 10.14.25: Rates Are A Bit Better

Good morning on this Tuesday from your Hometown Lender,

Rates today are a bit better than Friday.

Bonds had some risk of volatility this morning after the holiday when the bond market was closed while stocks still traded but opened flat. The government shutdown continues, and likely will continue for quite a while longer. Fed Chair Jerome Powell spoke today and said that the Fed is close to ending its bond sales. Less supply of bonds will help rates over time. Markets are still convinced the Fed is going to have to cut its policy rate at the end of this month and again at the December meeting.

Mortgage Market & Rate Outlook — Tuesday, October 14, 2025

What’s moving markets today

  • Government shutdown, day 14: OMB says it’s preparing to “ride it out,” underscoring ongoing data disruptions and headline risk. Senate is attempting yet another vote to reopen. Reuters+1
  • Fed watch: Chair Jerome Powell speaks today (NABE, Philadelphia). Early coverage notes a steady, cautious tone, with hints QT may be nearing its endpoint—markets are keying on any signal about pace/timing of cuts. Federal Reserve+1
  • Yields & MBS: The 10-year Treasury is hovering near ~4.05% and MBS coupons are steady after the long weekend—consistent with a “wait-and-see” posture. YCharts+1

This week at a glance (Oct 14–18)

  • Federal data flow is thinned by the shutdown. Several reports that normally drive rates (retail sales, PPI, housing) face delays/uncertainty. Independent calendars still list them, but don’t be surprised by postponements or lower market impact until official releases resume. MarketWatch+1
  • CPI update: BLS rescheduled September CPI to Fri, Oct 24 (8:30 a.m. ET) to meet Social Security’s COLA requirements; most other BLS releases remain on hold until funding is restored. Translation: fewer “hard” datapoints for traders this week. Bureau of Labor Statistics+2Reuters+2
  • Fed speakers: Beyond Powell, several Fed officials are on the circuit—headline sensitivity is elevated when the data calendar is dark. Federal Reserve

Where mortgage rates stand

  • Freddie Mac weekly survey (as of Oct 9): 30-yr fixed averaged 6.30%, lowest in ~a year on this survey; 15-yr at 5.53%. Surveys are weekly and lag live pricing, but they show the trend. Daily trackers show ~6.31% this morning. Freddie Mac+2freddiemac.gcs-web.com+2

The bigger picture (near-term)

  • Term premiums & supply matter: A fresh strategist poll expects long-end yields to stay elevated >4% even if the Fed trims policy rates—think persistent deficits, sticky inflation, and supply overhang. That tends to cap how far mortgage rates can fall without a true disinflation surprise. Reuters
  • Policy signal risk > data risk (for now): With fewer reports, Fed commentary and D.C. headlines can push rates intraday. Shutdown noise can also widen bid-ask spreads and make lenders cautious with reprices. Reuters+1

What it means for borrowers (plain English)

  • Today: Expect sideways to slightly choppy pricing as markets wait on Powell and watch the Hill. Lenders may keep rate sheets tight until volatility settles. Mortgage News Daily
  • This week: Without big data, moves may be headline-driven. Quick swings are possible, but sustained trends usually need fresh economic proof (which is delayed). Reuters
  • Near-term path: The base case is a gentle drift as traders game out the Oct 24 CPI and eventual shutdown resolution. A hotter-than-expected CPI would pressure rates up; a cooler print would re-open the downside. Bureau of Labor Statistics

Lock/float framework (for novice readers)

  • Lock bias if:
    • You’re inside 30 days of closing or debt-to-income is tight;
    • You need certainty and can’t risk a surprise pop from Fed comments or shutdown headlines.
  • Float with guardrails if:
    • You’re 45–60+ days out and can tolerate intraday noise;
    • You’ll set a target rate and we’ll watch for a dip to grab it;
    • You understand Oct 24 CPI is the next true catalyst. Mortgage News Daily+1

Key catalysts & “what ifs”

  • Powell tone today:
    • More dovish than expected → long yields slip, lender credits improve modestly.
    • Stiffer inflation vigilance → long yields nudge up, afternoon reprices worse possible. Reuters
  • Shutdown headlines:
    • Clear path to reopen → risk-on, supply clarity, could stabilize rates;
    • Deeper stalemate → lingering data blackout keeps markets twitchy and term premium sticky. Reuters+1
  • Supply/deficit narrative: Ongoing chatter keeps the 10-yr anchored around ~4%+, tempering how low mortgage rates can go without a growth or inflation downside surprise. Reuters

Bullet Points:

Actionable plan: If closing soon, lock the win; if you have time, float with alerts and be ready to lock on dips.

Rates: Roughly low-6s on standard 30-yr loans; weekly survey at 6.30%. Daily quotes vary by points/LLPAs. Freddie Mac+1

Today’s vibe: Markets are data-light, headline-heavy; expect modest intraday swings. Reuters

Next big date: Fri, Oct 24—CPI. That’s the next real “mover.” Bureau of Labor Statistics

Stay safe and make today great!