Good Monday PM,

Bonds are showing great resiliency despite Friday’s stunning payroll numbers. I have to believe that most traders view Friday numbers as just wrong. Dan Rawitch shared some insight which I am including below which shows the household survey report (which is more accurate) shows a disparity of 1.8mm workers than the government report. Bonds appear to know the truth and are trading accordingly. Wednesday is CPI, and I am guessing we may see that inflation has moderated and is perhaps on its way down. Floating seems safe for the next two days. It would be best if you were careful about floating into the CPI numbers on Wednesday.

The next domino to fall is likely going to be consumer defaults (not mortgage defaults). The graph below shows savings at an all time low and credit card debt at an all time high.

Please remain safe and stay healthy.