Good Wednesday AM on this best day of the week,
Bonds are trying to find some footing. After a run down and through support we are beginning to see a bounce. It is still tenuous but I am a glad half full guy. What is driving bonds is more about the slide in stocks than anything else. Home starts were down but new permits were up, so that’s a glimpse into the future for 2022. The next big news will be who President Biden taps for the next Fed Chairman. If he reappoints Powell, bond markets and rates will likely stick pretty close to where we are. If Biden pivots to Lael Brainard who is seen as the next likely choice (odds are 6-5 and pick ’em), bonds will rally and rates will improve. Ms. Brainard is seen far more dovish on the economy. I would not be surprised to see Brainard get the nod. The optics are more important and she checks those boxes. Regardless, bonds are oversold and we are due for a bounce. I hate to try and catch a falling knife but I am thinking it may be ok to float in here. Tomorrow is unemployment claims data. Every piece of economic data matters right now, so we will see what that shows. Markets are expecting 261k new claims (which by the way, still exceeds what was acceptable pre-pandemic so why people would be excited about that number is baffling).
This is part of the below commentary but it is worth restating it as I believe it to be accurate:
Chief Executive Officer David Solomon said that markets could face a rocky time ahead as the global economy seeks to emerge from the abrupt impact of the pandemic. “When I step back and think about my 40-year career, there have been periods of time when greed has far outpaced fear — we are in one of those periods,” … “My experience says those periods aren’t long lived. Something will rebalance it and bring a little bit more perspective”… “Chances are interest rates will move up, and if interest rates move up that in of itself will take some of the exuberance out of certain markets.”
Short and sweet today.
Please remain safe and healthy, make today great.