Good Morning on this fantastic Wednesday,
Wild ride in the market yesterday with stocks up 280 at one point and then down 100 the next, causing some indigestion. At the end of the day both stocks and bonds closed close to even. Today we get back on the merry go round. Stocks up 150 at the open and bonds down about 20bps. The 10-yr is at 2.56%. Bonds continuing to take cues from stocks. We had some mixed economic news this morning with the most damaging, Leading Economic indicators and Capacity utilization, beating expectations. Beige book comes out later today which can make a dent, but for now we are in this current range. The positive spin is we are at the lower end of the range and should see some improvement. The negative side is it would not take much to push us down further into the next trading channel.. Unemployment claims data out tomorrow but right now this is all about stocks and with this recent push higher, the stock volatility index has also jumped. I wouldn’t count bonds out quite yet.
Some pearls from Elliott Eisenberg (he comes out with some interesting insights from time to time) Markets are currently pegging the odds of a government shutdown this Friday at midnight at 30%. If there is a shutdown, the average duration of the 11 that have occurred since 1977 is less than 4 days, and the cost to the economy is between $1 billion/day and $1.5 billion/day, with the losses rising the longer the closure. If it lasts a week, Q1 GDP would be cut by 0.15%.
Make today great!