Good Wednesday PM (sorry for the delay but still best day of the week),
Bonds are trying but still under a lot of pressure with the CPI numbers yet to come on Friday. I actually liked it better when we could blame the equity markets as they turn on a dime, but today they are flat. It is likely that traders are positioning themselves for a number that may be too high. I do not expect good news on CPI, not yet. The supply chain is showing early signs of recovery and this is known by watching the shipping costs and the back logs at the shipping ports, both of which are getting better. CPI will gradually improve as the supply chain loosens up. We are not there yet. As CPI is a running average, we are still dropping off some low cpi months and replacing them with currently higher cpi monthly readings. It does not look great right now. Play defense.
Dr. Elliott Eisenberg shared that the home ownership vacancy rate is 0.9%, the lowest rate since at least 1956. The rental vacancy rate is 5.8%, the lowest rate since 1984. Existing inventory is 1.27 million, the lowest October reading in over 20 years, built new inventory is at its lowest level since at least 1973, and the cost to buy a single-wide manufactured home went from $55,000 pre-Covid to $70,200. Talk about a supply problem! How are prices going to deflate?
Please remain safe and healthy, make today great.